Quilmes vs Agropecuario: match statistics

Quilmes have a clear home advantage: they have won 56% of their home matches, while Agropecuario have won just 6% of their away games and lost 63% of them. The hosts average 1.19 goals scored and just 0.38 conceded at home, whereas the visitors score 0.56 goals and concede 1.63 on the road. The difference in chance quality is reflected in the xG figures: 1.59 for Quilmes at home compared with 1.14 for Agropecuario away. In addition, the hosts have kept a clean sheet in 63% of their home matches, while the visitors have failed to score in 56% of their away games. Both teams have identical records over their last five matches—2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses—so the Quilmes pick is driven above all by their considerably stronger home-versus-away record.

The strongest signal points to Agropecuario failing to score: away from home, they average 0.56 goals and draw a blank in 56% of matches, while Quilmes keep a clean sheet in 63% of their home games. The teams’ records also point to a low rate of matches in which both sides score: 25% for Quilmes and 44% for Agropecuario, compared with 39% across the league. Neither team has had a match with goals from both sides in their last five games, and each has averaged just 0.6 goals. Agropecuario’s away xG of 1.14 offers some counterbalance, but with an average of 2.69 shots on target and a conversion rate of 6%, their goal still appears to be the less likely scenario. The “BTTS - No” pick here means that at least one team will fail to score; it does not mean the match must end 0-0.

The strongest signal points to Under 3.5 goals: all of Quilmes’ home matches and 87% of Agropecuario’s away matches finished below this line. Quilmes concede an average of just 0.56 goals at home and keep a clean sheet in 63% of matches, while Agropecuario score an average of 0.56 goals away and fail to score in 56% of matches. The hosts could exploit the visitors’ weaker defence, which concedes an average of 1.63 goals, but Quilmes’ own scoring average is 1.06, limiting the potential for a high-scoring game. In their last five matches, both teams averaged 0.6 goals scored, and only 20% of each team’s matches went Over 2.5 goals; therefore, I project 2.00 total goals and select Under 3.5 goals.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome: Quilmes were level at the break in 50% of their matches, compared with 56% for Agropecuario. Both teams rarely score before half-time — the hosts average 0.31 goals per match, while the visitors manage just 0.06. Quilmes should gain the advantage after the break, as the hosts average 0.75 goals in the second half, while Agropecuario concede 1.06. The case for a home win at full-time is also supported by Quilmes’ 50% win rate, compared with the visitors’ 63% loss rate, and their higher xG of 1.49 to 1.14. However, both teams have earned 1.4 points per match over their last five games, so a draw at half-time followed by a Quilmes win is the strongest HT/FT pick, but not without risk.