Quilmes vs San Telmo: match statistics

Quilmes have a clear home advantage: they have won 50% of their home matches and lost just 17%, while San Telmo have yet to win away from home. The hosts average 1.08 goals scored at home with an xG of 1.55, whereas the visitors score just 0.55 goals away and create chances worth only 0.88 xG. Quilmes’ defence concedes just 0.42 goals per home match and keeps a clean sheet in 58% of fixtures, while San Telmo allow opponents 1.80 xG away from home. Current form also favours the hosts, with San Telmo losing 4 of their last 5 matches and conceding 8 goals in the process. The low average goal tally in both teams’ matches, combined with San Telmo’s 55% away draw rate, increases the likelihood of a closely contested result; however, a narrow Quilmes win remains the most probable outcome.

The BTTS - No pick is strongly supported by San Telmo’s low attacking output, as they average just 0.55 goals per match this season and have failed to score in 55% of their games. Quilmes have kept a clean sheet in 50% of matches, while their season BTTS rate stands at just 25%, compared with 45% for their opponents and 41% across the league. The visitors create few chances, averaging 6.36 shots and just 1.73 shots on target, with an xG of 0.88, which limits their chances of breaching the hosts’ defence. San Telmo’s recent form also provides little support for a goal, having scored 4 goals in their last five matches, an average of 0.8 per game. Quilmes should have the attacking edge thanks to 1.63 xG and 4.17 shots on target per match, but a result featuring a goal from only one side is more likely than both teams scoring.

The competition profile is clearly low-scoring: the average is only 1.93 goals per match, while the 2.5-goal line has been exceeded in just 32% of games. Quilmes score an average of 1.00 goal and keep a clean sheet in 50% of matches, whereas San Telmo score only 0.55 goals away from home, with just 1.73 shots on target per game. Historically, under 3.5 goals has landed in 75% of Quilmes matches and as many as 91% of San Telmo matches, significantly limiting the risk of a high-scoring game. The hosts create more chances, with an average xG of 1.63 compared to the visitors' 0.88, but their 8% shot conversion rate and San Telmo's weak attack point instead towards a total of 1–3 goals. Therefore, the safest choice is Under 3.5 goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Quilmes victory, as the hosts were level after 45 minutes in 50% of their matches, rising to 80% across their last five games. San Telmo have also frequently gone into the break level (55%), but they have failed to score before half-time in each of their last five appearances and were trailing at the break in 60% of their matches. After the interval, Quilmes should have the clearer advantage: the hosts average 1.63 xG compared with San Telmo’s 0.88, register 12.25 shots per match versus 6.36, and record 4.17 shots on target compared with 1.73. San Telmo have not won a single match this season, score only 0.55 goals per game, and have lost four of their last five league fixtures, further supporting the prospect of Quilmes turning the draw into a victory later in the match.