Racing vs Cerro Largo: match statistics
Racing vs Cerro Largo: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Racing played Cerro Largo in Primera División (Uruguay). The match was played on 17 May 2026. Venue: Parque Osvaldo Roberto. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Racing: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match. Cerro Largo: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Racing scores 1.53 and concedes 0.93 goals per match. Cerro Largo scores 1.07 and concedes 1.27. League average: 2.53 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Racing 60%, Cerro Largo 40%. Over 2.5: Racing 40%, Cerro Largo 40%. League level: BTTS 54%, Over 2.5 49%.
xG, shots and style
Racing has higher xG: 1.60 vs 1.27. Racing: 13.0 shots per match, Cerro Largo: 10.2.
Match halves
Racing: half-time lead 40%, second-half goals 0.80. Cerro Largo: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 0.67.
Goals by minute
Racing: 76-90+ (6 goals). Cerro Largo: 76-90+ (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Primera División: 2.53 goals per match, BTTS 54%, Over 2.5 49%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 1-2-0. Average goals 2.33, BTTS 67%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back Racing to win because at home they average 1.63 goals per match, register 5 shots on target from 13.13 attempts and have a 12% conversion rate, with home xG for of 1.63. Cerro Largo away scores only 0.88 goals per game, records 4 shots on target from 10.88 attempts and an 8% conversion, and failed to score in 50% of their away matches. Defensively, Racing concedes 1.0 goal at home on average with xG against 1.08 and a positive home goal difference of +5, whereas the visitors concede 1.25 goals on average away, have a negative away goal difference of -3 and xG against 1.71, suggesting more clear-cut chances created against them. In the last 5 matches Racing averages 1.6 points (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss) while Cerro Largo averages only 0.8 points (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses), confirming the home side’s form advantage. Considering superior finishing, higher shot volume and more favorable xG metrics for the hosts, I assess Racing’s win probability at 65%, draw 20% and away win 15%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Statistical analysis indicates a mildly positive signal for BTTS - Yes: the league BTTS rate is 54%, Racing has 57% BTTS at home, while Cerro Largo has only 25% BTTS away. Racing concedes an average of 1.29 goals at home and keeps a clean sheet in just 14% of matches (meaning the home side concedes in 86% of games), whereas Cerro Largo scores an average of 0.88 goals on the road and fails to score in 50% of away matches, which weakens the probability of Goal/Goal. xG shows both sides create chances: Cerro Largo has average xG 1.34, while Racing allows opponents an average of 1.57 xG; conversely Racing has xG 1.19 and Cerro Largo concedes 1.71 xG on average, so statistically both teams register opportunities. Cerro Largo averages 10.88 shots and 4.0 on target with a conversion rate of 8%, while Racing averages 9.43 shots and 2.71 on target with a 14% conversion, indicating the visitors create more chances but are less clinical. Considering Racing’s high BTTS level (57%) and the league average 54%, but also Cerro Largo’s 50% rate of being shut out away, I forecast BTTS - Yes at 60% and No Goal at 40% as the most likely outcome.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
xG analysis and recent form yield a combined expected goals total of about 2.77: home ~1.68 (last 5 matches attacking xG 1.56 vs. away defense average xG conceded 1.80) and away ~1.09 (last 5 attacking xG 1.18 vs. home defense 0.99). A Poisson distribution at this total gives probability of ≥2 goals (Over 1.5) ≈76%, ≥3 goals (Over 2.5) ≈52% and ≥4 goals (Over 3.5) ≈30%. This aligns with season metrics: Racing has 71% of matches with over 1.5 goals, Cerro Largo 50%, while Over 2.5 stands at 43% for Racing and 38% for the visitors; additionally Racing scores 1.29 goals seasonally with a shot conversion rate of 14% versus 0.88 and 8% for the visitors, which increases the hosts’ chance to score. The last 5 rounds however show a lower goal tempo (Racing 5 goals in 5 matches, Cerro 4 goals), so Over 2.5 is only marginally favored (~52%), whereas Over 1.5 provides a larger safety margin (~76%). Therefore I recommend a bet on Over 1.5 (the "over" side, line 1.5) as the strongest signal from the data due to higher expected xG and better home conversion.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The strongest signal indicates a Half-Time/Full-Time X/2: the away side won 38% of matches versus 29% for the home side, they have a higher xG (1.34 vs 1.19) and more shots (10.88 vs 9.43) and more shots on target (4.0 vs 2.71), suggesting superiority in chance creation. The away team were drawing at the break in 50% of their games (drawingAtHTPercentage_away=50), and over the last 5 matches they averaged 1.4 second-half goals (last5_AVG_2hg_overall_away=1.4) with at least one goal occurring in 80% of those games (last5_over05_2hg_percentage_overall_away=80), which favors a turnaround after the break. The home team tend to score more late goals (4 goals in minutes 76–90 vs 2 for the away team), meaning their strikes often come late and less frequently decide the result before half-time. Additionally, the home side has a higher shot conversion rate (14% vs 8% for the away team), but the lower number of chances (2.71 shots on target vs 4.0) reduces the probability of holding a lead for the full 90 minutes. Therefore the most likely scenario is X/2 (~30%), with X/X (~20%) and 2/2 (~15%) as the main alternatives.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Racing | Cerro Largo | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Racing is 100% better for: last-5 form.
1.6 pts / match - Racing · 0.8 pts / match - Cerro Largo
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Racing is 43% better for: goals scored per match.
1.53 goals / match - Racing · 1.07 goals / match - Cerro Largo
Racing is 37% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.93 goals / match - Racing · 1.27 goals / match - Cerro Largo
Racing scores in 93% of matches (14 of 15 matches), while Cerro Largo keeps a clean sheet in 20% (3 of 15 matches).
Cerro Largo scores in 60% of matches (9 of 15 matches), while Racing keeps a clean sheet in 33% (5 of 15 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Racing
Over / Under - Cerro Largo
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Racing is 26% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.67 pts / match - Racing · 1.33 pts / match - Cerro Largo
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Racing - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 40% of matches and wins 60%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Cerro Largo - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 33%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (6 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (6 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Racing
Cerro Largo
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Primera División).
Teams vs league
| Racing | Liga | Cerro Largo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.47 | 2.53 | ▼ 2.33 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 60% | 54% | ▼ 40% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 40% | 49% | ▼ 40% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 33% | 25% | ▼ 20% |
| Goal before half-time | • 73% | 73% | • 73% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 73% | 77% | ▲ 87% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Racing 1 - 2 - 0 Cerro Largo. Average goals 2.33, both teams scored in 67% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Racing vs Cerro Largo?
The Primera División match finished Racing 1:0 Cerro Largo. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Racing and Cerro Largo?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Racing won 1, Cerro Largo won 0 and 2 ended level. These games averaged 2.33 goals, with both teams scoring in 67% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Racing vs Cerro Largo?
Racing score 1.53 goals per game on average and Cerro Largo 1.07. The Primera División average is 2.53 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 49% of games. Both teams score in 60% of Racing's matches and 40% of Cerro Largo's.
What form are Racing and Cerro Largo in?
Over the last 5 games Racing have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and Cerro Largo 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Racing vs Cerro Largo?
The statistical background for Racing vs Cerro Largo — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.