Radnički Kragujevac vs IMT Novi Beograd: match statistics

IMT Novi Beograd sit higher in the table, in 2nd place, and have collected 10 points from their last five matches, while Radnički Kragujevac have picked up 7. However, the hosts are extremely strong at home: they have won every match there, averaging 3 goals scored, conceding none, and keeping a clean sheet in 100% of their appearances. Radnički also create more in the final third, averaging 21 shots compared with IMT’s 16.33, while their xG stands at 2.25 versus the visitors’ 1.89. IMT have a solid defence, conceding just 0.67 goals per away match, but they fail to score in 33% of those fixtures. The visitors’ superior position and form offset part of the home advantage, but Radnički’s dominant home numbers point to a narrow victory.

The strongest signal for BTTS - No comes from Radnički’s defensive record: the hosts have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their home matches so far and conceded an average of 0.0 goals. IMT score only 1.0 goal per away match and failed to score in 33% of such fixtures, despite posting a solid average xG of 1.89. Both teams have recorded BTTS in just 20% of their last five matches, while the Serbian league has a low BTTS rate of 35%. Radnički create a high volume of chances, averaging 2.58 xG and 7.5 shots on target at home, so the most likely scenario is that the hosts score while at least one team fails to find the net. IMT have recently been well organised defensively, conceding 0.4 goals per match across their last five fixtures, which further supports the possibility of a one-sided, low-scoring result.

Radnički score an average of 2.0 goals at home and have yet to concede, while IMT average 1.0 goal per away match. The hosts’ defensive profile is further confirmed by an xG against of just 0.66, while IMT have conceded only 0.4 goals per match in their last 5 fixtures. In the last five matches played by both teams, only 20% of games respectively saw both sides score, limiting the chances of an open, end-to-end contest. The Under 3.5 goals line has an advantage, as all of IMT’s away matches in the current data set stayed below this threshold, while the projected total of 2.25 goals remains clearly below the four goals required for the bet to lose.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an IMT win at the final whistle, as the visitors have averaged 2.0 points over their last five matches, compared with Radnički’s 1.4. IMT have conceded just 0.4 goals per match over this period, while the hosts have allowed 1.2, and the Belgrade side have won 60% of their matches, compared with Radnički’s 40% win rate. The first half should be cautious: IMT have been level at the break in 40% of their recent matches and conceded just 0.2 goals per game before half-time. After the interval, the visitors’ advantage should increase, as they score an average of 1.0 goals in the second half, while Radnički manage only 0.4. The hosts’ higher season-long xG, 2.58 compared with 1.89, limits confidence in the prediction, but IMT’s significantly stronger recent defensive form supports a late turnaround in their favour.