Raith Rovers vs Greenock Morton: match statistics

Raith Rovers are favorites for this match: at home they score on average 1.75 goals per game and have an average xG of 1.39, while Greenock Morton score away on average 1.13 goals with xG 1.01. The hosts create significantly more chances — 11.5 shots per game and 4.06 on target versus Morton’s 7.5 and 2.81 — and with identical shot conversion of 15% this yields a clear edge in quality of chances. Defensively Raith concede on average 1.13 goals at home and record 38% clean sheets, whereas Morton concede 1.63 goals away and have only 19% clean sheets, which further favors the hosts. In the last 5 matches Raith have scored 10 goals and have 3 wins (PPG 1.8), while Morton have 5 goals and 2 wins (PPG 1.2), so form advantage also speaks for Raith. Considering the higher home win rate (44% vs Morton’s 19% away) and the superiority in xG and shot volume, I tip a home win; a draw is however possible due to Morton’s high draw rate (38%).

Season statistics favor BTTS: Raith Rovers have BTTS in 44% of matches, Greenock Morton in 69%, yielding a mean of 56.5% versus the league level of 49%. In the last 5 matches Raith have BTTS in 40% and score on average 2.0 goals, while Morton have BTTS in 60%, score 1.0 and concede on average 1.6 goals, and their last5 xG against is 1.82, indicating defensive vulnerability. In chance creation Raith have a season xG of 1.29 with 10.88 shots and 3.38 on target, and Morton xG 1.01 with 7.5 shots and 2.81 on target; although Raith seasonally score only 0.94 goals (below xG), conditions favor a goal. Morton convert better (15% vs 9%) and keep a clean sheet in only 19% of matches (Raith 31%), meaning Morton concede more often. Considering the seasonal average 56.5%, recent trends and Morton's defensive susceptibility (seasonal 1.63 goals conceded), I assess BTTS probability at 65% (Yes) vs 35% (No).

Combining xG and defensive metrics yields total expected goals around 2.69: home xG 1.29 and away xG 1.01, with xG conceded 1.51 (home) and 1.57 (away), implying about 1.43 for Raith and 1.26 for Greenock Morton. A Poisson distribution with λ=2.69 gives probability of at least 2 goals ≈75% and at least 3 goals ≈50%, which serves as a baseline. However, form and recent results increase the likelihood of a higher score: in the last 5 matches Raith averages 2.0 goals and has 80% of games Over 2.5, Morton averages 1.0 goals and 60% Over 2.5, while season percentages for matches Over 0.5 are 88% (Raith) and 94% (Morton). Additionally, the hosts average 10.88 shots (3.38 on target) and the visitors 7.5 (2.81 on target) with conversion rates 9% vs 15% and xG 1.29 vs 1.01, so the higher number of goal-scoring opportunities and recent trends point to Over 2.5 as the strongest signal (estimated probability ~65%).

The strongest half-time signal is a draw: home teams were level at the break in 44% of matches and away teams in 38%, indicating a high likelihood of HT=X. In the second half the advantage should shift to Raith Rovers – the home side’s season xG is 1.29 versus 1.01 for the visitors, shots per game 10.88 vs 7.5 and shots on target 3.38 vs 2.81, translating into superior chance creation. In the last five matches the hosts have averaged 1.6 goals after the break and scored at least once after half-time in 5 of 5 games, while the visitors have 0.0 second-half goals in that period, which favors a turnaround from the halftime draw. Additionally, the home team has a higher season points average (1.31 vs 0.94) and a higher win percentage (31% vs 19%), therefore the Half-Time/Full-Time scenario draw at half-time and home win by full-time (X/1) is assessed as the strongest.