Rangers vs Hibernian: match statistics

Rangers appear to be the favorites based on strong home metrics: they score 2.11 goals on average and have an average xG of 1.99 per home match, versus Hibernian’s 1.33 goals scored and xG 1.22 on the road. The home side averages 17.94 shots and 6.28 on target per home game compared to the visitors’ 10.22 shots and 3.89 on target, giving Rangers significantly more chance creation despite similar finishing rates (12% vs 13%). Defensively Rangers concede 1.06 goals at home and keep 33% clean sheets, while Hibernian concedes 1.33 on the road and has only 17% clean sheets, which favors the hosts defensively. In the last 5 matches Rangers have scored 14 and conceded 13, while Hibernian have scored 8 and conceded 7; both teams average 1.2 points per game in this period, but Rangers’ greater offensive productivity suggests an edge. Considering 60% home possession vs 46% for the visitors, a lower share of goalless games for Rangers (17% vs 39%) and a stronger home record (61% home wins vs 33% away wins for Hibernian), I assess the win probabilities as: Rangers 60%, Draw 20%, Hibernian 20%.

The strongest signal for BTTS is form: Rangers had BTTS in 100% of their last 5 matches, and Hibernian in 60% of their last 5, providing a strong short-term impulse toward both teams scoring. On the season level Rangers record BTTS in 50% of matches, Hibernian in 56% versus a league average of 51%, i.e. a tendency closer to the 'yes' option. xG metrics support this forecast - Rangers produce home xG 1.59 with xG against Hibernian 1.46, while Hibernian have away xG 1.22 versus xG against Rangers 1.32, meaning both sides have realistic chances to score. In the last 5 matches Rangers averaged 2.8 goals scored and conceded 2.6, and Hibernian scored 1.6 and conceded 1.4, so recent performances of both teams have been relatively high-scoring. Although Rangers have 44% of home matches as clean sheets and Hibernian only 17% clean sheets on the road, the combined analysis of form and xG leads me to prefer BTTS - Yes as the stronger signal (72% vs 28%).

The combined projected xG is 1.53 for Rangers (average attacking xG 1.59, xG conceded by Hibernian 1.46) and 1.27 for Hibernian (attacking xG 1.22, xG conceded by Rangers 1.32), totaling 2.80 expected goals. Seasonal stats show Rangers have Over 1.5 in 83% of matches, Hibernian in 72%, both teams Over 0.5 in 89% of fixtures, and matches with both teams scoring occur in 50% and 56% of cases — this supports the expectation of at least two goals. In the last 5 matches Rangers scored 14 goals (2.8 per game) and recorded 100% Over 2.5, Hibernian scored 8 goals (1.6) with 80% Over 2.5; additionally Rangers average 14 shots (5.11 on target) vs Hibernian 10.22 (3.89 on target) with a conversion rate of 13% — this favors achieving the projected xG. Under a Poisson model with λ=2.80 the probability of Over 1.5 is about 77%, Over 2.5 about 53% and Over 3.5 about 31%, therefore my strongest signal is Over 1.5.

Rangers led at half-time in 50% of matches (leadingAtHT_home = 9; leadingAtHTPercentage_home = 50%), while Hibernian did so in 33% (leadingAtHT_away = 6; leadingAtHTPercentage_away = 33%). On average by half-time Rangers score 0.83 and concede only 0.39 (scoredAVGHT_home = 0.83; concededAVGHT_home = 0.39), whereas Hibernian have 0.78 scored and 0.67 conceded (scoredAVGHT_away = 0.78; concededAVGHT_away = 0.67), giving the home side a clear defensive advantage before the break. After the break Rangers also show greater attacking strength — on average they score 0.94 goals in the second half versus 0.56 for Hibernian (scored_2hg_avg_home = 0.94; scored_2hg_avg_away = 0.56) and generate higher xG 1.59 vs 1.22 as well as more shots on target 5.11 vs 3.89 (xg_for_avg_home = 1.59; xg_for_avg_away = 1.22; shotsOnTargetAVG_home = 5.11; shotsOnTargetAVG_away = 3.89). Additionally Rangers kept a clean sheet at half-time in 72% of cases (seasonCSPercentageHT_home = 72%), which reduces Hibernian’s chance of scoring before the break and strengthens the probability of maintaining the lead. On this basis the strongest signal is Rangers leading at half-time and winning full-time (1/1), hence the selection '1/1' as the highest probability pick at 35% in my forecast.