Rapperswil-Jona vs Wil: match statistics

Rapperswil-Jona holds a slight edge: they sit 4th vs Wil’s 7th and average 1.8 pts in the last 5 matches compared to the visitors’ 1.4, translating into a 3-0-2 record for the hosts versus Wil’s 2-1-2. Offensively the hosts have scored 11 goals in five games (2.2 per match) versus the visitors’ 8 goals (1.6 per match), giving them a clear attacking advantage. At the same time Rapperswil-Jona have conceded 10 goals in those 5 matches (2.0 per match) against Wil’s 8 conceded (1.6 per match), indicating greater defensive vulnerability for the hosts and potential for a goals-heavy game. Considering the superior points average (1.8 vs 1.4), more goals scored (11 vs 8) and higher league position (4 vs 7), the hosts are the favorites, although the advantage is not overwhelming due to their weaker defense.

Seasonal stats in the provided data are empty (values 0), so I base the analysis on the last 5 matches. Rapperswil-Jona has BTTS at 100% in the last 5 matches and over that period averaged 2.2 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, strongly indicating Goal/Goal outcomes. Wil has BTTS 60% in the last 5 matches, averaging 1.6 scored and 1.6 conceded, with recent xG of 1.84 for and 1.59 against, meaning they both create chances and are prone to concede. Overall, Rapperswil-Jona’s matches averaged 4.2 goals per game (11 scored + 10 conceded in 5 matches) and Wil’s matches averaged 3.2 goals (8+8), which confirms a high goal involvement in their games. Considering 100% vs 60% BTTS, the averages 2.2/2.0 and 1.6/1.6 and the above xG, I predict BTTS - Yes with a 75% probability versus 25% for No, as the home side’s profile and the generally high goal volume provide the stronger signal.

In the last 5 matches Rapperswil-Jona averages 2.2 goals scored and concedes 2.0, while Wil averages 1.6 scored and concedes 1.6; their recent xG is 1.48 (R-J) and 1.84 (Wil). Combined xG is 1.48+1.84=3.32, and accounting for opposing xG (1.76 and 1.59) I estimate 1.54 expected goals for the home side and 1.80 for the visitors, total ≈3.34 goals. A Poisson model on mean 3.34 yields roughly 85% probability for Over 1.5, ~65% for Over 2.5 and ~43% for Over 3.5, hence the strongest signal is Over 2.5. Additionally Rapperswil-Jona had 100% Over 2.5 in their last 5, while Wil had 60%, with BTTS 100% vs 60%, which increases the likelihood of goals from both sides and reinforces the Over 2.5 recommendation.

Rapperswil-Jona scores an average of 1.4 goals by half-time in the last five matches versus 0.6 for Wil and concedes 0.6 goals by half-time compared to 1.0 conceded by the visitors, giving the hosts an advantage in the first half. The hosts were level at the break in 60% of matches and led in 40%, while Wil was level at half-time in 40% and led in only 20%, hence the highest probability is a draw at 45 minutes. After 90 minutes Rapperswil-Jona won 60% of their last five fixtures with an average of 2.2 goals, and Wil won 40% with an average of 1.6, which supports a full-time victory for the hosts. The second half, however, offers scope for a turnaround by the visitors — Wil scores an average of 1.0 goals after the break versus 0.8 for the hosts — so a comeback by the visitors is not ruled out, but the first-half numbers and overall wins favor X/1 on the HT/FT market.