Real Garcilaso vs Alianza Lima: match statistics
Real Garcilaso vs Alianza Lima: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Real Garcilaso played Alianza Lima in Primera División (Peru). The match was played on 11 October 2026. Venue: Estadio Inca Garcilaso de la Vega. Final score: 1:2.
Current form
Real Garcilaso: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match. Alianza Lima: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Real Garcilaso scores 1.48 and concedes 1.41 goals per match. Alianza Lima scores 1.63 and concedes 0.67. League average: 2.75 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Real Garcilaso 63%, Alianza Lima 52%. Over 2.5: Real Garcilaso 59%, Alianza Lima 37%. League level: BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 53%.
xG, shots and style
Alianza Lima has higher xG: 1.68 vs 1.38. Real Garcilaso: 12.7 shots per match, Alianza Lima: 15.7.
Match halves
Real Garcilaso: half-time lead 41%, second-half goals 0.70. Alianza Lima: half-time lead 37%, second-half goals 0.85.
Goals by minute
Real Garcilaso: 0-15 (8 goals). Alianza Lima: 31-45+ (13 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Primera División: 2.75 goals per match, BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 53%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-2. Average goals 4.33, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Real Garcilaso have won 69% of their home matches, while Alianza Lima have won 38% of their away games, which points to the hosts. At home, Real Garcilaso average 1.77 goals and create chances worth 1.69 xG, while Alianza Lima average 1.00 goal and 1.17 xG away from home. The hosts have won 3 of their last 5 matches, compared with just 1 win for Alianza, although the visitors have conceded far fewer goals over the season: 18 versus 38. Both teams concede an average of 0.69 goals in the respective conditions relevant to this match, and 54% of Alianza's away games have ended in a draw. Real Garcilaso's attacking edge and home form make a home win the most likely outcome, but the visitors' solid defence increases the chances of a draw.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The BTTS scenario has a slight edge, as both teams recorded BTTS in 60% of their last five matches. Real Garcilaso average 2.21 goals at home and generate 2.16 xG, although Alianza Lima concede just 0.69 goals per away match. The greater uncertainty surrounds the visitors finding the net: they average 1.0 goal away from home, while the hosts concede 0.64 at home. However, Alianza’s recent attacking form supports their chances — their xG across the last five matches was 1.99, while Real allowed opponents 1.79 xG. The solid defenses limit confidence in the prediction, but these recent figures tip the assessment slightly towards BTTS - Yes.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Real Garcilaso score an average of 2.21 goals at home and generate an xG of 2.16, but Alianza Lima concede just 0.69 goals per away match, limiting the hosts' attacking potential. The visitors average 1.00 goal away from home, while the hosts concede 0.64 at home, resulting in a projected 1.55 goals for Real and 0.80 for Alianza. Under 3.5 goals landed in 79% of Real's home matches and in as many as 92% of Alianza's away games. The last five matches do show greater volatility from the hosts—60% went over 2.5 goals, compared with 20% of the visitors' matches—but the 3.5-goal line offers a clearer signal. Therefore, the pick is Under 3.5 goals, with the probability estimated at 82%.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Real Garcilaso led at the break in 50% of their home matches and were ahead at half-time in three of their last five games, supporting the case for them to take an early lead. The hosts average 2.21 goals per match, compared with Alianza Lima’s 1.00 away from home, while their xG stands at 2.16 against 1.17 for their opponents. Their attacking edge is also reflected in an average of 6.71 shots on target for the hosts versus 3.38 for the visitors, as well as Real’s 79% home win rate. The strongest single HT/FT scenario is therefore for the hosts to lead both at half-time and at full-time. The risk of a draw remains significant, as Alianza drew at the break in 62% of their away matches and finished level in 54% of them.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Real Garcilaso | Alianza Lima | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 35% | 33% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Real Garcilaso is 80% better for: last-5 form.
1.8 pts / match - Real Garcilaso · 1 pts / match - Alianza Lima
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Alianza Lima is 10% better for: goals scored per match.
1.48 goals / match - Real Garcilaso · 1.63 goals / match - Alianza Lima
Alianza Lima is 110% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.41 goals / match - Real Garcilaso · 0.67 goals / match - Alianza Lima
Real Garcilaso scores in 81% of matches (22 of 27 matches), while Alianza Lima keeps a clean sheet in 41% (11 of 27 matches).
Alianza Lima scores in 89% of matches (24 of 27 matches), while Real Garcilaso keeps a clean sheet in 19% (5 of 27 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Real Garcilaso
Over / Under - Alianza Lima
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Real Garcilaso is 7% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.7 pts / match - Real Garcilaso · 1.59 pts / match - Alianza Lima
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Real Garcilaso - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 41% of matches and wins 52%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Alianza Lima - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 37% of matches and wins 59%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (8 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (13 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +10 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Real Garcilaso
Alianza Lima
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Primera División).
Teams vs league
| Real Garcilaso | Liga | Alianza Lima | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.89 | 2.75 | ▼ 2.30 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 63% | 58% | ▼ 52% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 59% | 53% | ▼ 37% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 19% | 24% | ▲ 41% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 67% | 69% | ▲ 78% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 85% | 78% | ▼ 67% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Real Garcilaso 1 - 0 - 2 Alianza Lima. Average goals 4.33, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Real Garcilaso vs Alianza Lima?
The Primera División match finished Real Garcilaso 1:2 Alianza Lima. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Real Garcilaso and Alianza Lima?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Real Garcilaso won 1, Alianza Lima won 2 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 4.33 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Real Garcilaso vs Alianza Lima?
Real Garcilaso score 1.48 goals per game on average and Alianza Lima 1.63. The Primera División average is 2.75 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 53% of games. Both teams score in 63% of Real Garcilaso's matches and 52% of Alianza Lima's.
What form are Real Garcilaso and Alianza Lima in?
Over the last 5 games Real Garcilaso have a 3-0-2 record (1.80 points per game) and Alianza Lima 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Real Garcilaso vs Alianza Lima?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.