Real Salt Lake vs FC Dallas: match statistics

Real Salt Lake boast a very strong home profile: they win 88% of their matches, average 2.25 goals scored, and lose just 13% of games. The hosts also create significantly more high-quality chances, with an average xG of 1.93 compared with FC Dallas’ 1.40, while their opponents allow an average xG of 1.69 away from home. FC Dallas score 1.56 goals per away game, but fail to score in as many as 33% of away fixtures, averaging 4.89 shots on target per match compared with Real Salt Lake’s 7.25 at home. The last five matches for both teams produced 4 goals conceded each, but Real Salt Lake scored 10 goals during that period, while Dallas managed only 4. The hosts’ advantage in chance creation, home efficiency, and attacking intensity points to a Real Salt Lake victory.

The BTTS - No pick is primarily supported by FC Dallas’ current form: the visitors have scored just 4 goals in their last 5 matches, averaging 0.8 per game, while BTTS occurred in only 20% of those fixtures. Over the same period, Real Salt Lake conceded an average of just 0.8 goals, further limiting Dallas’ chances of scoring. Seasonally, the hosts have a high BTTS rate of 78%, but FC Dallas stands at only 44% and has kept a clean sheet in 33% of its matches. The visitors’ attack has recently created chances worth an average of 1.13 xG, while Real Salt Lake has scored 2.0 goals per game across its last five appearances. Therefore, a result with goals mainly for the hosts appears more likely than both teams scoring.

Real Salt Lake score an average of 2.00 goals per match, while FC Dallas concede an average of 1.00 goal away from home, despite their opponents recording a high average xG of 1.69. The hosts are also in good offensive form, having scored 10 goals in their last five matches, averaging 2.00 per game. Dallas have scored just 4 goals over the same period, but created chances worth an average of 1.13 xG, while Real Salt Lake’s defense allowed opponents to record as much as 1.73 xG per match. At least two goals were scored in 78% of Real Salt Lake’s matches and 67% of Dallas’ games, which gives Over 1.5 goals by far the strongest statistical support. The 2.5 line remains realistic, but is less convincing due to Dallas’ low scoring efficiency in their last five matches.

Real Salt Lake have clearly improved their starts to matches: in their last five games, they were leading at the break in 60% of cases and never went into half-time behind, while FC Dallas have not led at half-time once. During this run, the hosts averaged 0.8 goals scored and only 0.2 conceded before the break, compared with just 0.2 goals scored and 0.4 conceded by Dallas. Real’s advantage is also evident after the interval, as they have averaged 1.2 second-half goals in their last five appearances, compared with 0.6 for the visitors. FC Dallas have a solid defence over the course of the season, conceding an average of 1.0 goal per match, but their current attacking output has declined to 0.8 goals per game, while Real are scoring 2.0. The most likely scenario is therefore that the hosts will capitalise on their strong start, take the lead before half-time and hold on to it until the final whistle.