Red Star Belgrade vs Novi Pazar: match statistics
Red Star Belgrade vs Novi Pazar: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Red Star Belgrade played Novi Pazar in SuperLiga (Serbia). The match was played on 9 May 2026. Final score: 1:2.
Current form
Red Star Belgrade: 4-1-0, 2.60 points/match. Novi Pazar: 0-1-4, 0.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Red Star Belgrade scores 2.88 and concedes 0.79 goals per match. Novi Pazar scores 1.24 and concedes 1.41. League average: 2.68 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Red Star Belgrade 53%, Novi Pazar 50%. Over 2.5: Red Star Belgrade 76%, Novi Pazar 44%. League level: BTTS 53%, Over 2.5 50%.
xG, shots and style
Red Star Belgrade has higher xG: 2.57 vs 1.61. Red Star Belgrade: 22.8 shots per match, Novi Pazar: 13.0.
Match halves
Red Star Belgrade: half-time lead 76%, second-half goals 1.50. Novi Pazar: half-time lead 26%, second-half goals 0.62.
Goals by minute
Red Star Belgrade: 31-45+ (23 goals). Novi Pazar: 31-45+ (10 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
SuperLiga: 2.68 goals per match, BTTS 53%, Over 2.5 50%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 2-0-0. Average goals 5.50, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Red Star Belgrade are clear favorites: at home they average 3.47 goals per game, have won 88% of matches at their stadium and this season have 98 goals scored versus 27 conceded. In the last 5 home matches the hosts scored 13 goals (2.6 per game) and recorded 4 wins and 1 draw, while Novi Pazar in their last 5 matches has failed to win (0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses) and has only 6 goals. The gap in chance quality is significant: Red Star average 22.65 shots and 9.06 on target at home with xG 2.56, while the visitors on the road register 12.24 shots and 3.59 on target with xG 1.44. Defensively the hosts concede only 0.53 goals per home game and keep 53% clean sheets, whereas Novi Pazar concedes on average 1.35 goals away and fail to score in 47% of their away matches, which further supports backing the home side. Considering the superiority in shots, higher xG (2.56 vs 1.44), better form (PPG 2.6 vs 0.2 over the last 5) and low FTS 6% versus 47%, I assess an 80% probability of a home win, 12% for a draw and 8% for an away win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
BTTS market forecast: 'yes' 65% vs 'no' 35%, recommendation: 'yes'. Red Star has a home-seasonal BTTS rate of 65%, while Novi Pazar's away BTTS rate is 35%; however, in the last 5 matches both teams recorded BTTS at 80% (4 of 5), which boosts the short-term probability of both teams scoring. The hosts have scored 98 goals this season (1.41 per home match) and have a home xG of 1.77, with an xG of 2.43 over the last 5 matches, whereas Novi Pazar conceded 14 goals in their last 5 matches (2.8 on average), so the hosts’ attacking potential is clear. Against that, Novi Pazar fail to score in 47% of matches season-to-date and their seasonal away BTTS percentage is only 35%, which reduces the chance of 'both teams to score'. Considering Red Star's superiority in shots on target (5.76 vs 3.59), higher xG and the recent 4/5 BTTS trend for both sides, I assign a higher probability to the 'yes' scenario 65% vs 35%.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
I forecast a total goals tally of around 3.30 (Red Star ≈1.95, Novi Pazar ≈1.35). The basis is xG values: Red Star’s attacking xG is 1.77 versus Novi Pazar’s defensive xG 1.62 (baseline ≈1.70), and in the last 5 matches Red Star’s xG is 2.43 with 13 goals scored (avg 2.6), which boosts the home side’s expectations. Novi Pazar has an attacking xG of 1.44 and scores 1.06 goals per game on the season, but in the last 5 matches they have scored 6 and conceded 14 (avg 2.8 conceded), indicating susceptibility to goals. Seasonal metrics confirm a tendency for high-scoring games: both teams have 76% of matches with over 1.5 goals, Red Star scores at least once in 100% of games and averages 13.71 shots (5.76 on target) versus Novi Pazar’s 12.24 (3.59 on target). As a result, the strongest signal from the data is over 1.5 (selection: Over 1.5) — I assign it a high probability of ≈92% (over) versus 8% (under); Over 2.5 is rated at ≈70%, and Over 3.5 at ≈36%.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Red Star holds a clear offensive advantage: xG 1.77 versus Novi Pazar’s 1.44, an average of 5.76 shots on target versus 3.59, and a season win-efficiency of 47% compared to 29% for the visitors. At half-time the hosts average 0.82 goals and the visitors 0.41; season-to-date Red Star led at the break in 29% of matches, and in the last 5 fixtures they led in 3 of 5 (60%), indicating improved first-45 form. Novi Pazar have not won in their last 5 matches (0%) and did not lead at half-time in those 5 games (0%), and their inferior xG and shots on target metrics (1.44 and 3.59) hinder comebacks. Therefore the most likely scenario is Red Star leading at the break and ultimately winning the match (1/1) — priced by us at 38%, while the next strongest signal is a half-time draw and a home win (X/1) at 14%. In addition, the hosts have had 88% of their matches with at least one goal by half-time this season versus 65% for the visitors, which increases the probability of Red Star holding a lead at the break.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Red Star Belgrade | Novi Pazar | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 39% | 36% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Red Star Belgrade is 1200% better for: last-5 form.
2.6 pts / match - Red Star Belgrade · 0.2 pts / match - Novi Pazar
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Red Star Belgrade is 132% better for: goals scored per match.
2.88 goals / match - Red Star Belgrade · 1.24 goals / match - Novi Pazar
Red Star Belgrade is 78% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.79 goals / match - Red Star Belgrade · 1.41 goals / match - Novi Pazar
Red Star Belgrade scores in 88% of matches (30 of 34 matches), while Novi Pazar keeps a clean sheet in 32% (11 of 34 matches).
Novi Pazar scores in 76% of matches (26 of 34 matches), while Red Star Belgrade keeps a clean sheet in 41% (14 of 34 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Red Star Belgrade
Over / Under - Novi Pazar
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Red Star Belgrade is 104% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
2.47 pts / match - Red Star Belgrade · 1.21 pts / match - Novi Pazar
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Red Star Belgrade - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 76% of matches and wins 79%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Novi Pazar - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 26% of matches and wins 38%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.1 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 2.4 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 60% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 0% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +4 | +4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 2.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -6 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (23 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +18 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (10 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Red Star Belgrade
Novi Pazar
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (SuperLiga).
Teams vs league
| Red Star Belgrade | Liga | Novi Pazar | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.68 | 2.68 | • 2.65 |
| Both teams scored | • 53% | 53% | ▼ 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 76% | 50% | ▼ 44% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 41% | 29% | ▲ 32% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 85% | 70% | ▲ 76% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 79% | 74% | ▲ 79% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Red Star Belgrade 2 - 0 - 0 Novi Pazar. Average goals 5.50, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Red Star Belgrade vs Novi Pazar?
The SuperLiga match finished Red Star Belgrade 1:2 Novi Pazar. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Red Star Belgrade and Novi Pazar?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Red Star Belgrade won 2, Novi Pazar won 0 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 5.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Red Star Belgrade vs Novi Pazar?
Red Star Belgrade score 2.88 goals per game on average and Novi Pazar 1.24. The SuperLiga average is 2.68 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 50% of games. Both teams score in 53% of Red Star Belgrade's matches and 50% of Novi Pazar's.
What form are Red Star Belgrade and Novi Pazar in?
Over the last 5 games Red Star Belgrade have a 4-1-0 record (2.60 points per game) and Novi Pazar 0-1-4 (0.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Red Star Belgrade vs Novi Pazar?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Red Star Belgrade vs Novi Pazar: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.