Reims vs Guingamp: match statistics

Reims remain unbeaten in the league, with a record of 2 wins and 2 draws, while they have collected 11 points from their last five matches thanks to 3 wins and 2 draws. The hosts are particularly dangerous at home, averaging 3 goals per match, registering 7 shots on target, and failing to score in none of their home games. Guingamp have lost both of their away fixtures so far, scoring just 0.5 goals per match, and failed to find the net in 50% of those outings. Although the visitors have a higher average away xG—1.76 compared with Reims’ 1.74 at home—their shot conversion rate of just 3% significantly limits their ability to capitalise on chances. Reims concede an average of 2 goals at home and have yet to keep a clean sheet, so a Guingamp goal is possible. However, the hosts’ superior form, finishing efficiency and home advantage point towards a Reims win.

The BTTS - Yes pick is supported by both teams’ current form, as both sides have scored in 60% of their last five matches. Reims averaged 2.6 goals during this period, while Guingamp averaged 1.6, with the visitors conceding as many as 1.8 goals per game. Despite a low season average of 0.5 goals, Guingamp are currently creating chances worth 1.45 xG and recording 6.5 shots on target per match, giving them a realistic chance of breaching the Reims defence. The hosts have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their league matches this season, but their recent average of 1.24 xG conceded and 1.0 goals conceded suggests they are not clear favourites to keep another clean sheet. Reims should also respond offensively, having scored an average of 2.0 goals this season and 2.6 across their last five appearances.

Reims average 2.0 goals scored at home, while Guingamp concede 1.5 goals per away match, which clearly supports the hosts’ scoring potential. In their last five matches, Reims averaged 2.6 goals scored, whereas Guingamp conceded 1.8, so current form also points to at least two goals. The visitors are less effective away from home, averaging 0.5 goals scored, but they create plenty of chances: their average xG is 1.76, while Reims allow opponents 1.50 xG. Over 1.5 goals was recorded in all previous matches involving both teams, while the last five matches produced Over 2.5 goals in 80% of Reims’ games and 60% of Guingamp’s. The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as it combines high attacking activity with significantly lower risk than the more demanding 2.5-goal line.

Reims have a clearly stronger home record: they average 2.0 goals per match and have earned 2.0 points, while Guingamp have lost every away fixture and scored just 0.5 goals per game. The hosts were leading at the break in 50% of their home matches, whereas the visitors have never gone into half-time with the lead and failed to score before the break in 100% of such appearances. Reims’ advantage is even more pronounced in their current form: across their last five matches, they averaged 2.6 goals and remained unbeaten, compared with Guingamp’s 1.6 goals and 40% loss rate. After half-time, Reims have recently averaged 1.8 goals, while their opponents have conceded 1.2 goals in this period, supporting the likelihood that they will maintain or extend their lead. The most likely outcome is therefore an HT/FT scenario in which Reims take the lead before the break and secure the win by full-time (1/1).