Renate vs Novara: match statistics
Statistical analysis indicates a balanced match with an edge for a draw. Renate shows solid home form with a 38% win rate and an average of 1.19 goals per match, but their recent results have been inconsistent. Novara is characterized by an exceptional tendency for draws, especially away (69% draws), which is a key factor in this prediction. The visitors are in good form with 1.8 points per match in their last five games and have not lost any of them. Renate has a slight advantage in xG (1.61 vs 1.34), but Novara's defensive solidity (44% clean sheets away) and their tendency to share points make a draw the most likely outcome of this match.
Renate vs Novara: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Renate played Novara in Serie C Group A (Italy). The match was played on 28 March 2026. Final score: 3:1.
Current form
Renate: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match. Novara: 2-3-0, 1.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Renate scores 1.30 and concedes 0.94 goals per match. Novara scores 1.06 and concedes 0.88. League average: 2.29 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Renate 52%, Novara 52%. Over 2.5: Renate 45%, Novara 27%. League level: BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 41%.
xG, shots and style
Renate has higher xG: 1.52 vs 1.43. Renate: 11.8 shots per match, Novara: 11.3.
Match halves
Renate: half-time lead 52%, second-half goals 0.61. Novara: half-time lead 24%, second-half goals 0.55.
Goals by minute
Renate: 46-60 (11 goals). Novara: 61-75 (9 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Serie C Group A: 2.29 goals per match, BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 41%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-0. Average goals 1.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Statistical analysis indicates a balanced match with an edge for a draw. Renate shows solid home form with a 38% win rate and an average of 1.19 goals per match, but their recent results have been inconsistent. Novara is characterized by an exceptional tendency for draws, especially away (69% draws), which is a key factor in this prediction. The visitors are in good form with 1.8 points per match in their last five games and have not lost any of them. Renate has a slight advantage in xG (1.61 vs 1.34), but Novara's defensive solidity (44% clean sheets away) and their tendency to share points make a draw the most likely outcome of this match.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The data indicates moderate BTTS chances, but with a slight edge for the scenario where one of the teams fails to score. Novara has a very solid defense (0.81 goals conceded per match and 44% clean sheets), and in the last 5 matches they have conceded only 2 goals (0.4 per match), which supports the 'BTTS: No' pick. At the same time, the league and both teams' profiles suggest rather low scoring (Over 2.5: Renate 35%, Novara 19%), which often correlates with no BTTS. Renate has decent offensive parameters (xG for 1.52 per match, 4.24 shots on target per match), so the most realistic risk for the 'no' pick is a goal from the hosts combined with Novara failing to score. Novara is average in attack (0.94 goals per match), and Renate defensively concedes relatively little (0.94 goals conceded per match; xGA 1.09 per match), which limits the probability of both teams scoring. The last 5 matches of both sides have BTTS at only 40% each, which further strengthens the 'no' pick as more likely.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The goal profile of both teams supports a low/moderate scoreline: Novara has a very high Under 2.5 (81%) and Under 3.5 (81%) rate, and Renate also frequently stays under 2.5 (65%) and 3.5 (76%). Seasonal goal averages are modest (Renate 1.18 scored at home, Novara 0.94 away) and both defenses look solid based on GA numbers (Renate 0.94, Novara 0.81). Although xG metrics suggest chance creation (Renate xG 1.52, Novara xG 1.34), shot conversion is average (10% and 9%), which limits the conversion of advantage into goals. Additionally, Novara has a high clean sheet percentage (44%) and in the last 5 matches conceded few goals (0.4), favoring a scenario with a maximum of 3 goals. Therefore, the strongest signal is the Under 3.5 line, which has the highest probability of realization with an expected 2.17 goals in the match.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The strongest signal is the high propensity for draws: Renate draws 53% of their matches, while Novara draws a significant 69%, which naturally boosts the X/X (draw/draw) variant. The first half is expected to be cautious and balanced, as Renate are level at the break in 65% of their games. Both teams have a low average of first-half goals (HT average: 1.00 vs 0.88) and high percentages of clean sheets at half-time (53% vs 69%). Novara defends solidly (0.81 goals conceded per match, 44% clean sheets overall), and in their last 5 matches, they have conceded an average of just 0.4 goals, limiting Renate's chances of holding a lead at the break or pulling away. On the other hand, Renate have better chance creation (xG for 1.52) and a stronger second half (1.71 points per game in second halves), making the X/1 (draw at HT, home win at FT) a realistic alternative. However, given the 'draw-prone' profiles of both sides, a draw after 90 minutes remains the most likely outcome. Additionally, low first-half over rates (Over 1.5 HT: 35% vs 19%) support the thesis of a prolonged level score.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Renate | Novara | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 36% | 36% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Novara is 13% better for: last-5 form.
1.6 pts / match - Renate · 1.8 pts / match - Novara
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Renate is 23% better for: goals scored per match.
1.3 goals / match - Renate · 1.06 goals / match - Novara
Novara is 7% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.94 goals / match - Renate · 0.88 goals / match - Novara
Renate scores in 82% of matches (27 of 33 matches), while Novara keeps a clean sheet in 36% (12 of 33 matches).
Novara scores in 70% of matches (23 of 33 matches), while Renate keeps a clean sheet in 39% (13 of 33 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Renate
Over / Under - Novara
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Renate is 48% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.88 pts / match - Renate · 1.27 pts / match - Novara
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Renate - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 52% of matches and wins 42%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Novara - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 24% of matches and wins 24%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 100% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +4 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (11 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): -5 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (9 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Renate
Novara
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie C Group A).
Teams vs league
| Renate | Liga | Novara | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.24 | 2.29 | ▼ 1.94 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 52% | 50% | ▲ 52% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 45% | 41% | ▼ 27% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 39% | 30% | ▲ 36% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 79% | 66% | ▼ 61% |
| Goal after half-time | • 70% | 71% | ▼ 64% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Renate 1 - 0 - 0 Novara. Average goals 1.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Renate vs Novara?
The Serie C Group A match finished Renate 3:1 Novara. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Renate vs Novara?
Renate score 1.30 goals per game on average and Novara 1.06. The Serie C Group A average is 2.29 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 41% of games. Both teams score in 52% of Renate's matches and 52% of Novara's.
What form are Renate and Novara in?
Over the last 5 games Renate have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and Novara 2-3-0 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Renate vs Novara?
The statistical background for Renate vs Novara — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.