Riga FC II vs Rēzekne / BJSS: match statistics

Riga FC II have won 55% of their home matches, while Rēzekne / BJSS have lost every away game, clearly tipping the balance in the hosts’ favour. Over the last five rounds, the hosts have scored 6 goals and conceded 7, whereas the visitors have managed just 4 goals and conceded as many as 18. Their attacking advantage is also reflected in their home and away averages: Riga score 1.82 goals per match, while Rēzekne manage only 0.4 away from home and fail to score in 60% of those matches. The hosts also create more chances, with a home xG of 1.42 compared with the visitors’ away xG of 0.69, while Rēzekne’s defence allows chances worth an average of 2.66 xG per match. Although Riga concede an average of 1.73 goals at home, Rēzekne’s away average of 3.2 goals conceded makes a home win by far the most likely outcome.

Riga FC II have seen BTTS - Yes in 82% of their matches and have not kept a clean sheet, which points towards the visitors scoring. However, Rēzekne / BJSS average just 0.40 goals per match and fail to score in 60% of their games, making their contribution to this scenario uncertain. The visitors average 1.88 shots on target, and their xG stands at 0.69 compared with the hosts’ 0.88, further indicating limited attacking potential. Riga FC II, meanwhile, average 1.18 goals, while the visitors concede 3.20, so a goal from the hosts is more likely. Although the hosts concede an average of 2.91 goals, the visitors’ high rate of matches without scoring gives a slight edge to BTTS - No: at least one team is expected not to score.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals: this line has landed in 100% of Riga FC II’s home matches and 80% of Rēzekne / BJSS’s away games. The visitors concede an average of 3.2 goals, rising to 3.6 over their last five matches, giving the hosts a chance to score at least twice despite averaging 1.18 goals at home. Riga FC II also concede heavily, at an average of 2.91 goals, but the visitors score just 0.4 goals away from home and have failed to score in 60% of their matches. Over 2.5 goals is supported by both teams’ results, having landed in 73% and 80% of their matches, respectively; however, the visitors’ poor scoring record makes it a less reliable option than Over 1.5 goals.

The most likely scenario is that Riga FC II leads at the break and holds on to its advantage until the final whistle. Rēzekne / BJSS were trailing at half-time in 9 of their 10 matches, conceding an average of 1.4 goals before the break and scoring just 0.1. The hosts themselves led at half-time in only 11% of their matches, so a half-time draw followed by a home win remains a notable alternative. Riga’s recent record across their last five matches supports a full-time win: they scored an average of 1.2 goals and conceded 1.4, while the visitors scored 0.8 and conceded 3.6. The advantage could also be maintained after the break, as the visitors have recently conceded an average of 2.5 goals per match in the second half, compared with just 0.2 for the hosts.