Rīgas FS II vs JFK Ventspils: match statistics

Rīgas FS II have lost 4 of their last 5 matches, conceding as many as 23 goals during that run—an average of 4.6 per game—which significantly undermines confidence in their defensive solidity. JFK Ventspils have also failed to win any of their last five matches, but they allowed opponents just 9 goals, while the hosts conceded more than twice as many. Away from home, Ventspils average 1.75 goals scored compared with Rīgas FS II’s 1.44 goals at home, while their average expected goals against stands at 1.34 versus 1.87 conceded by the hosts. Ventspils lose only 38% of their away matches, compared with Rīgas FS II’s 56% home defeat rate, so despite the genuine risk of a draw, the visitors should be given the edge.

The strongest argument for both teams to score is Rīgas FS II’s disastrous recent defensive record: the hosts have conceded 23 goals in 5 matches, averaging 4.6, while their opponents created chances worth 2.11 xG during this period. JFK Ventspils have failed to keep a clean sheet in 87% of matches and concede an average of 1.88 goals per game, giving the hosts a realistic route to improve on their poor seasonal average of 0.56 goals. The trend is clearly pro-BTTS, as Rīgas FS II have seen both teams score in 5 of their last 5 matches, while the figure for Ventspils is 4 of 5. The visitors should respond, especially since they have averaged 1.75 goals throughout the season and have not once finished a match without scoring. The only risk to the pick is Ventspils’ average of 0.8 goals across their last five appearances; however, the hosts’ very poor defensive quality clearly limits the significance of this signal.

Rīgas FS II have averaged 1.8 goals scored in their last 5 matches, but, more importantly, they have conceded as many as 4.6 goals per game, which clearly increases the visitors’ attacking potential. JFK Ventspils have scored in 100% of their matches this season, while the hosts have allowed their opponents to score at least once in 89% of games. Over 2.5 goals was landed in 100% of the hosts’ last five matches, with both teams scoring in each of those games; the average xG against Rīgas FS II is also 2.11. The Over 1.5 line is further supported by the strongest seasonal trends: it was exceeded in all JFK Ventspils matches and in 67% of the hosts’ games, making the expected total of 3.20 goals a clear advantage.

JFK Ventspils hold a clear advantage before the break: they were leading at half-time in 63% of their matches, while Rīgas FS II have never led and were trailing at half-time in 44% of games. The visitors average 1.00 goal in the first half, while the hosts concede 0.78, with Rīgas FS II’s recent form particularly alarming — they conceded as many as 2.8 goals per match before the break in their last five outings. Over the full match, Ventspils average 1.75 goals compared with just 0.56 for Rīgas FS II, while the visitors’ shot conversion rate stands at 20%, against 8% for the hosts. Rīgas FS II have lost 4 of their last 5 matches and conceded an average of 4.6 goals in those games, making the most likely scenario an HT/FT 1/1 outcome, with Ventspils taking the lead at the break and holding on to it until the final whistle.