Rio Ave FC vs CD Nacional: match statistics
Rio Ave FC vs CD Nacional: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Rio Ave FC played CD Nacional in Liga NOS (Portugal). The match was played on 11 October 2026. Venue: Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube. Final score: 3:2.
Current form
Rio Ave FC: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match. CD Nacional: 0-0-5, 0.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Rio Ave FC scores 0.71 and concedes 2.14 goals per match. CD Nacional scores 1.00 and concedes 2.14. League average: 2.72 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Rio Ave FC 14%, CD Nacional 43%. Over 2.5: Rio Ave FC 43%, CD Nacional 57%. League level: BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 55%.
xG, shots and style
CD Nacional has higher xG: 1.15 vs 0.84. Rio Ave FC: 7.1 shots per match, CD Nacional: 10.9.
Match halves
Rio Ave FC: half-time lead 14%, second-half goals 0.43. CD Nacional: half-time lead 0%, second-half goals 0.57.
Goals by minute
Rio Ave FC: 0-15 (1 goals). CD Nacional: 31-45+ (2 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Liga Portugal: 2.72 goals per match, BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 55%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-1. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Rio Ave have a slight edge heading into this match: they have picked up 4 points in their last five games, while CD Nacional have lost all five. At home, the hosts average 1 goal scored and an xG of 1.00, whereas the visitors average 0.67 goals and 0.77 xG away from home, pointing to greater attacking potential for Rio Ave. However, the hosts’ defence is a concern, conceding an average of 3 goals per home game, compared with Nacional’s 1.67 goals conceded away. Both teams have failed to score in 67% of their respective home and away matches, so a draw remains a realistic outcome. The pick for Rio Ave is driven primarily by the visitors’ dismal run, although the hosts’ poor defensive record limits confidence in this prediction.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The strongest argument for BTTS - No—meaning at least one team will fail to score—is Nacional’s attacking output: the visitors average 0.67 goals per match and have failed to score in 67% of their games. They also average just 2 shots on target, with an xG of 0.77, limiting their chances of exploiting Rio Ave’s weaker defence, which concedes an average of 2.5 goals. Rio Ave have considerably greater scoring potential, averaging 1.25 goals with an xG of 1.43, particularly as Nacional have yet to keep a clean sheet. Even so, both teams scored in only 20% of Rio Ave’s and 40% of Nacional’s last 5 matches, making it more likely that the visitors will fail to find the net.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals: this line has been cleared in 100% of Rio Ave’s home matches and 67% of Nacional’s away matches. The hosts average 14 shots and an xG of 1.43, while the visitors concede an average of 1.67 goals, with opponents recording an xG of 2.10, giving Rio Ave a clear chance to score. Nacional score just 0.67 goals per away match and have failed to score in 67% of those games, so I assess their contribution to the total more cautiously. A projected total of 2.75 goals supports Over 1.5, while the 2.5 line remains less certain: Rio Ave’s home matches have featured at least 3 goals in 75% of cases, compared with just 33% of Nacional’s away matches.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Rio Ave have greater attacking potential, averaging 14 shots per match compared with Nacional’s 6.67, while their xG stands at 1.43 against their opponents’ 0.77. The case for the hosts to lead at the break is strengthened by Nacional’s record of trailing at half-time in 4 of their last 5 matches, conceding an average of 1.8 first-half goals in those games. However, confidence in this scenario is tempered by the fact that Rio Ave have not led at half-time in any of their 4 home matches. Rio Ave are more likely to hold on to their advantage than to see the visitors produce a turnaround, given that Nacional have lost all of their last 5 matches and averaged just 0.6 goals scored in them. Therefore, 1/1 is the most compelling single selection, although a half-time draw followed by a Rio Ave win remains a significant alternative.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Rio Ave FC | CD Nacional | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 36% | 26% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.28 | 0.35 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
CD Nacional is 41% better for: goals scored per match.
0.71 goals / match - Rio Ave FC · 1 goals / match - CD Nacional
Rio Ave FC scores in 29% of matches (2 of 7 matches), while CD Nacional keeps a clean sheet in 14% (1 of 7 matches).
CD Nacional scores in 57% of matches (4 of 7 matches), while Rio Ave FC keeps a clean sheet in 14% (1 of 7 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Rio Ave FC
Over / Under - CD Nacional
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Rio Ave FC is 65% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.71 pts / match - Rio Ave FC · 0.43 pts / match - CD Nacional
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Rio Ave FC - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 14% of matches and wins 14%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
CD Nacional - second-half results
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -5 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 0% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -8 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (1 goal). Concedes most in 0-15 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (2 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Rio Ave FC
CD Nacional
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Liga Portugal).
Teams vs league
| Rio Ave FC | Liga | CD Nacional | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.86 | 2.72 | ▲ 3.14 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 14% | 51% | ▼ 43% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 43% | 55% | ▲ 57% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 14% | 28% | ▼ 14% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 86% | 70% | ▲ 86% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 71% | 76% | ▼ 71% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Rio Ave FC 0 - 1 - 1 CD Nacional. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Rio Ave FC vs CD Nacional?
The Liga NOS match finished Rio Ave FC 3:2 CD Nacional. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Rio Ave FC and CD Nacional?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Rio Ave FC won 0, CD Nacional won 1 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Rio Ave FC vs CD Nacional?
Rio Ave FC score 0.71 goals per game on average and CD Nacional 1.00. The Liga NOS average is 2.72 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 55% of games. Both teams score in 14% of Rio Ave FC's matches and 43% of CD Nacional's.
What form are Rio Ave FC and CD Nacional in?
Over the last 5 games Rio Ave FC have a 1-1-3 record (0.80 points per game) and CD Nacional 0-0-5 (0.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Rio Ave FC vs CD Nacional?
The statistical background for Rio Ave FC vs CD Nacional — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.