Rizespor vs Konyaspor: match statistics

I back the away win (2) because Konyaspor is in markedly better form: 4 wins and 1 draw in the last 5 matches, 10 goals scored and only 3 conceded, averaging 2.6 points per match over that span versus Rizespor’s 1.4 points (2-1-2 and goal difference 9:8). Season-long metrics are very even — both teams have similar goal totals (Rizespor 41 vs Konyaspor 40) and identical goals per game (1.27). Rizespor holds a defensive edge at home: 1.27 goals conceded per home match on average and 40% of home games with a clean sheet, whereas Konyaspor concedes 1.73 on the road and has only 7% clean sheets away. xG and shots are comparable (home xG 1.44 vs away 1.33, shots on target 4.13 vs 4.07), so current form and finishing will be decisive — the visitors have better conversion (10% vs 9%) and a lower share of matches without a goal (20% vs 27%). Accordingly, I assess the probabilities: Konyaspor 40%, draw 25%, home win 35%.

I assess BTTS as the more likely outcome in this match, assigning 'yes' 75% vs 'no' 25%. Both teams show strong goal signals — Rizespor have a home BTTS season rate of 56%, while Konyaspor away is 73% (league average 54%), indicating frequent both-teams-to-score occurrences. In the last 5 matches Rizespor recorded BTTS in 80% of games and conceded on average 1.6 goals, whereas Konyaspor in their last 5 had BTTS in 40% and conceded 0.6 on average, but over the season they concede 1.73 goals away and keep a clean sheet in only 7% of away matches. Additionally Rizespor generate xG 1.54 and average 4.38 shots on target, and Konyaspor 1.33 xG and 4.07 shots on target with conversion rates 9%/10%, suggesting both sides can create and convert chances. Overall seasonal and offensive figures (56%/73% BTTS, low 7% Konyaspor away clean sheets and Rizespor 80% BTTS in last 5) provide a strong signal for 'yes' (BTTS - Yes).

Based on xG and average goals I calculate total expected goals at 2.80: the home side around 1.60 (attacking xG 1.54 and xG against opponents 1.65 → average ~1.60), and the away side around 1.20 (attacking xG 1.33 and xG against the hosts 1.06 → ~1.20). Strong signal for OVER 1.5: seasonally Rizespor exceeded 1.5 goals in 81% of matches, Konyaspor in 100%, and both-teams-to-score rates are 56% (Rize) and 73% (Kony). For the 2.5 line the data are more balanced: season over 2.5 is 44% (Rize) and 60% (Kony), but in the last 5 matches Rizespor had 80% over 2.5 and Kony 60%, so with an expected total of 2.80 I rate OVER 2.5 at 58%. Over 3.5 is unlikely: seasonally only 13% of Rizespor matches and 33% of Kony matches finished with 4+ goals, and the predicted 2.80 is clearly below 3.5, therefore I assess OVER 3.5 at 24%. As a result the best line to play is OVER 1.5, since the xG alignment (2.80) with very high seasonal 81% and 100% for the 1.5 line and the high BTTS rates provides the strongest signal.

At half-time a draw is the most likely outcome: Rizespor were level at the break in 44% of their home matches, while Konyaspor were level at half-time in 53% of their away games. After 90 minutes the home side look the favorites: Rizespor average 1.5 points at home and win 38% of matches, whereas Konyaspor average 1.07 points on the road with only 27% wins. It should be noted, however, that Konyaspor are in good form — 4 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 matches (80% wins), which gives them a real chance to threaten. Rizespor also have the edge in xG and defensively — home xG is 1.54 versus 1.33 xG for the visitors away, and xG against is 1.06 for Rizespor compared to 1.65 for Konyaspor; the visitors concede on average 1.73 goals away. The first half is relatively low-scoring (Rizespor score 0.5 goals by half-time, Konyaspor 0.53), while the second half more often decides matches — second halves see >0.5 goals in 81% of the hosts’ games and 93% of the visitors’ games, so I expect a turnaround after the break. Therefore the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a Rizespor win after 90 minutes (X/1).