Roda JC vs Vitesse: match statistics

Vitesse sit 6th, while Roda JC are ninth, with the visitors having scored 10 goals in their five matches so far compared with the hosts’ 6. Vitesse’s form also looks stronger: they have averaged 2 points per game over their last five fixtures, compared with Roda’s 1.6. Away from home, Vitesse have won both matches, averaging 3.5 goals and converting 23% of their shots, while Roda score 2 goals per game at home with a 13% conversion rate. The hosts create slightly more high-quality chances, as reflected by an xG of 1.76 compared with Vitesse’s 1.69, but the visitors’ defence allows opponents a high xG of 1.98, and neither side has kept a clean sheet. An open game with goals at both ends is expected, but Vitesse’s greater efficiency and perfect away record so far make an away win the more likely outcome.

The signal for goals from both sides is clear, as BTTS landed in 67% of Roda’s matches and in all of Vitesse’s games so far, compared with a league average of 77%. Vitesse scores an average of 3.5 goals per match, records 6.0 shots on target, and should exploit the hosts’ weak defence, which concedes 1.67 goals per game and has kept no clean sheets. Roda averages only 1.0 goal, but its xG stands at a solid 1.80, while Vitesse allows opponents 1.98 xG and has also failed to keep a clean sheet this season. Over the last five matches, BTTS landed in 60% of Roda’s games and 80% of Vitesse’s, with both teams regularly finding the net, averaging 1.2 and 2.0 goals respectively. The most likely scenario is therefore one in which prolific Vitesse scores, while Roda responds by capitalising on the high quality of the chances it creates.

All previous matches between the two teams have gone over 1.5 goals, while Vitesse have also recorded Over 2.5 goals in 100% of their matches. The hosts create chances worth an average of 1.80 xG at home, whereas Vitesse allow opponents 1.98 xG away from home, which supports the case for a Roda goal despite their modest average of 1.0 goal. Vitesse score an average of 3.5 goals away from home, register 6.0 shots on target per match and have 1.69 xG, while Roda’s defence allows opponents 1.41 xG. Neither team has kept a clean sheet yet, and the last five matches have produced an average of 2.2 goals in Roda games and 3.4 in Vitesse games. The strongest signal is therefore Over 1.5 goals, as the combination of high chance creation and weak defensive metrics clearly limits the likelihood of a one-goal maximum scenario.

Vitesse have a significantly stronger season record: they score an average of 3.5 goals per match, win 100% of their games and record 3.0 points per match, while Roda score 1.0 goal and win only 33% of their matches. The visitors’ advantage is particularly evident before half-time, as they score an average of 2.0 goals in the first half, compared with Roda’s 0.33; Vitesse have held a lead at the break in 50% of their matches. The hosts have not yet conceded before half-time, but their last five matches suggest a more balanced pattern, as they were level at the break in 60% of cases, similar to Vitesse. After the break, Roda concede an average of 1.67 goals, while Vitesse score 1.5, strengthening the scenario of the visitors maintaining or extending their advantage. The 2/2 HT/FT pick is therefore the strongest, although a draw at half-time followed by a Vitesse win remains a significant alternative.