Roma vs Atalanta: match statistics

Roma have made an impressive start at home: they have won both matches, scored 8 goals and conceded none, averaging 4 goals per game. The hosts are also creating plenty of chances, averaging 17 shots per match, including 8 on target, with an xG of 2.06; Atalanta, meanwhile, do not have reliable away statistics available. However, the visitors’ overall form is a strong argument for a closely contested match, as they have remained unbeaten in their last five games, winning 4 and conceding just 1 goal. Roma have scored 14 goals over the same period but conceded 6, meaning their defence has not been as solid as it was in their two home matches. Home advantage, a 100% winning record at home and the higher quality of chances created give Roma a slight edge to win.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as Atalanta have averaged just 1.0 goal over their last 5 matches, with both teams failing to score in 80% of those games. Roma have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their home matches so far, while the league as a whole has a low BTTS rate of 35%, with as many as 65% of matches featuring at least one team failing to score. Atalanta are in good defensive form, conceding just 0.2 goals per game across their last five appearances, which further increases the risk that Roma will not convert their attacking potential. The hosts have recently scored 2.8 goals per game with an xG of 1.46, but their 40% BTTS rate across five matches is clearly below the break-even threshold. The most likely scenario therefore remains one in which at least one team fails to score.

Roma are in excellent attacking form: they have averaged 2.8 goals over their last 5 matches, scoring 14 goals in total, with each of those games going Over 2.5 goals. During this period, the hosts created chances worth an average of 1.46 xG, while Atalanta allowed opponents 1.39 xG, supporting the prospect of Roma scoring at least once. Atalanta have scored just 5 goals in their last 5 fixtures, but their average of 1.20 xG, combined with Roma conceding 1.30 xG, points to a realistic chance of the visitors adding a goal. At the same time, Atalanta conceded only 1 goal across those five matches, making higher lines less secure than the safer Over 1.5 goals market. The projected total of 2.55 goals provides the strongest edge for Over 1.5 goals.

Roma are the favourites primarily due to their attacking output: they have scored an average of 2.8 goals in their last five matches, compared with Atalanta’s 1.0. The hosts led at the break in 60% of those games and averaged 1.4 goals before half-time, while Atalanta were level after 45 minutes in as many as 80% of their matches and scored just 0.2 goals. Atalanta nevertheless remain unbeaten in this sequence, with 80% wins and only 0.2 goals conceded on average, which limits confidence in a high-scoring Roma victory. After the interval, Roma still hold the attacking edge, averaging 1.4 goals compared with Atalanta’s 0.8, while their opponents concede an average of 0.2 goals in this period. The strongest scenario is therefore Roma leading at the break and maintaining their advantage until full-time, although a draw at half-time remains a significant alternative.