Roma vs Fiorentina: match statistics

Fiorentina sit 6th in the table, while Roma are only 16th, clearly highlighting the difference in their performances so far. In their last five matches, the visitors have collected 8 points through 2 wins and 2 draws, whereas Roma have managed just 5 points, suffering 2 defeats. Both teams have scored 10 goals during this period, but Fiorentina have conceded only 7, compared with Roma’s 13. The hosts are therefore conceding an average of 2.6 goals per match in this recent run, which, combined with Fiorentina’s scoring rate of 2 goals per game, creates a favourable setup for the visitors. Draws have been common for both sides, so that outcome remains a significant possibility, but the stronger defence and more consistent run point towards a Fiorentina win.

Both teams recorded BTTS in 4 of their last 5 matches, equating to 80% each and providing a clear signal for goals from both sides. Roma and Fiorentina scored 10 goals apiece during this period, averaging 2.0 goals per match. However, the hosts conceded as many as 2.6 goals per game in their last five outings, while Fiorentina conceded 1.4, meaning both sides regularly allow opponents to create scoring chances. Their attacking xG figures are lower, at 0.89 for Roma and 0.86 for Fiorentina, but both teams outperformed these metrics through their finishing, strengthening the scenario of goals at both ends. BTTS - Yes remains the most likely outcome, although the lack of complete season data limits the strength of this edge.

Roma’s last five matches produced an average of 4.6 goals, as the team scored 10 but conceded as many as 13. Over the same period, Fiorentina also scored 10 goals, while their matches averaged 3.4 goals after 7 goals were conceded. The 2.5 line was covered in 100% of Roma’s last five matches and in 60% of Fiorentina’s games, while both teams scored in 80% of cases on each side. Caution with higher lines is warranted due to lower chance-creation figures of 0.89 xG for Roma and 0.86 xG for Fiorentina, but their current defensive vulnerability clearly increases the likelihood of at least two goals. Over 1.5 is the strongest selection, as it combines both teams’ attacking form with a combined projection of 2.60 goals without requiring an open, four-goal game.

Fiorentina have shown better form over their last five matches, averaging 1.6 points compared with Roma’s 1.0, with a record of 2 wins, 2 draws and just 1 defeat. The visitors led at the break in 60% of those matches and scored an average of 1.2 goals before half-time, while Roma conceded as many as 1.4 goals per game in that period. The Romans were trailing after 45 minutes in 40% of their recent fixtures, with a half-time goal difference of -2 compared with Fiorentina’s +2. After the break, Fiorentina have also looked more solid defensively, conceding an average of 0.6 goals compared with Roma’s 1.2. Therefore, the most likely HT/FT scenario is for the visitors to lead at half-time and maintain their winning result through full-time.