Saburtalo vs Gagra: match statistics

Saburtalo is the favorite: they sit 1st in the table, have 7 wins this season versus Gagra’s 2, and have scored 19 goals compared to the visitors’ 11. At home Saburtalo is unbeaten (0% losses), with a 40% win rate and 60% draws, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per match; Gagra away averages 0.83 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. The quality gap shows in shots and efficiency: the hosts average 4.4 shots on target per game with a 12% conversion, while Gagra average 2.67 on target and an 8% conversion. In the last 5 matches Saburtalo scored 7 goals and average 1.4 points per game, whereas Gagra scored 3 goals and average 0.4 points per game; additionally Saburtalo keep a clean sheet in 40% of home games versus 17% for the visitors. Considering the higher home xG for the hosts (1.38 at home vs 1.24 xG for Gagra on the road), better efficiency and no home defeats, I predict a Saburtalo win, although the high share of home draws (60%) increases the likelihood of a split of points.

I back BTTS - Yes: Saburtalo posts a seasonal BTTS rate of 71% versus Gagra’s 50% and the league BTTS level of 54%, which is a strong signal for both teams to score. Additionally, Saburtalo has not kept a single clean sheet at home this season (0% clean sheets), while Gagra has only 17% clean sheets; in the last 5 matches both teams recorded BTTS in 60% of games, confirming the pattern’s consistency. In their last 5 matches Saburtalo averaged 1.4 goals (7 goals total) and 4.43 shots on target per game, while Gagra averaged 0.6 goals (3 goals total) and 2.67 shots on target, but conceded an average of 1.8 goals in those five matches and has a seasonal xG against of 1.66 — this suggests Gagra is susceptible to conceding. Seasonal goals-scored averages are low (0.86 for home side and 0.83 for away) and shot conversion rates are 7% and 8%, which may limit total goals, yet the discrepancy between xG (1.51 for Saburtalo and 1.24 for Gagra) and actual goals indicates potential scoring opportunities. Considering 71% vs 50% BTTS, the home side’s 0% clean sheets and the 60% BTTS in the last 5 for both teams, I assign 72% probability to Yes and 28% to No — recommendation: Yes.

The xG model projects a total of 2.92 goals: 1.59 for Saburtalo and 1.33 for Gagra, indicating a match with at least two goals. Seasonal data support this direction — Over 1.5 goals occurred in 86% of Saburtalo’s home games and 83% of Gagra’s away games (≈85% on average). Actual goals per game are lower (Saburtalo 0.86, Gagra 0.83) due to poor finishing relative to generated xG (xG_for 1.51 vs. 1.24 and shot conversion rates of 7% and 8%). Additionally, Saburtalo averages 4.43 on-target shots per game versus Gagra’s 2.67, and BTTS occurred in 71% of Saburtalo’s home matches and 50% of Gagra’s away matches, increasing the likelihood of reciprocal scoring. Therefore the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (probability ~86%), Over 2.5 is moderately likely (~60%), and Over 3.5 is unlikely (~15%).

In the last 5 matches Saburtalo led at the break in 40% of cases (2 of 5) and averages 1.0 goals at half-time versus only 0.2 for Gagra, which favors the home side in the first half. Saburtalo produces higher xG (1.51 vs 1.24) and registers more on-target shots (4.43 vs 2.67), confirming their superiority in chance creation. Additionally, the hosts are in better form over the last 5 fixtures: an average of 1.4 points per game and a 40% win rate in that sample, while Gagra has only 0.4 points and 0 wins in their last 5. Although Gagra have historically recorded stronger second halves of the season (averaging 1.5 points in the second half of the season), in the most recent 5 matches the visitors were losing at half-time in 60% of games, which reduces the likelihood of a successful turnaround. As a result, the strongest signal is Saburtalo leading at half-time and maintaining the win through to full-time (1/1), so I assess this scenario as the most likely (33%).