Saburtalo vs Samgurali: match statistics

Saburtalo have a clear home advantage: they win 50% of their matches there, lose just 10%, and concede only 0.8 goals per game on average. Samgurali do score 1.42 goals per away match, but their defense allows opponents 2.25 goals, while their goal difference stands at -10. The hosts create slightly better chances at home, averaging 1.48 xG compared with the visitors’ 1.43 xG away from home, and they also maintain 53% possession. Samgurali’s recent overall form is superior, with 7 points from five matches compared with Saburtalo’s 3; however, the hosts should be able to exploit their opponent’s very weak away defense. A closely contested match is expected, but Saburtalo’s home statistical profile points to a slightly higher probability of victory.

Both teams have strong season-long BTTS figures: 64% for Saburtalo and 67% for Samgurali, compared with the league average of 56%. Samgurali concede an average of 2.25 goals away from home, while Saburtalo have allowed opponents 2.6 goals per game across their last five matches, significantly increasing the chances of both sides finding the net. Recent form also points towards goals at both ends: BTTS landed in 60% of the hosts’ last five matches and in as many as 80% of Samgurali’s games. The attacking potential is comparable, with average xG of 1.45 for Saburtalo and 1.43 for Samgurali, while the hosts generated as much as 2.0 xG in their last five matches. A goal for each team is therefore a stronger scenario than BTTS - No, although Saburtalo have scored only 1.2 goals per game recently, which limits confidence in the pick.

Saburtalo score an average of 1.36 goals at home, while Samgurali concede as many as 2.25 goals per away match, which clearly supports the home side’s scoring output. Both teams are also in poor defensive form: Saburtalo conceded 2.6 goals per match in their last five fixtures, while Samgurali conceded 2.2. In the last five matches involving each team, the Over 2.5 goals line landed 80% of the time, while Saburtalo’s average xG was a high 2.00 compared with 1.36 for the visitors. Historically, at least two goals have been scored in 82% of Saburtalo’s matches and 67% of Samgurali’s, making Over 1.5 goals the safest and most strongly supported selection.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by a Samgurali win, as both teams were level at the break in 40% of their last five matches, and neither led at half-time during that period. Saburtalo are in a clear slump: they have lost 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring only 1.2 goals and conceding as many as 2.6 per game. Samgurali have the stronger recent results, averaging 1.4 points per match in their last five appearances compared with Saburtalo’s 0.6, while scoring an average of 1.2 goals after the break. The hosts have performed better over the season as a whole, but their recent second-half defence has conceded an average of 1.2 goals, increasing the visitors’ chances of scoring the decisive goal in the second half.