Sacramento Republic vs Las Vegas Lights: match statistics
Sacramento Republic vs Las Vegas Lights: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Sacramento Republic played Las Vegas Lights in USL Championship (United States). The match was played on 1 October 2026. Venue: Papa Murphy’s Park. Final score: 3:2.
Current form
Sacramento Republic: 2-3-0, 1.80 points/match. Las Vegas Lights: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Sacramento Republic scores 1.32 and concedes 0.88 goals per match. Las Vegas Lights scores 1.28 and concedes 1.40. League average: 2.73 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Sacramento Republic 52%, Las Vegas Lights 64%. Over 2.5: Sacramento Republic 32%, Las Vegas Lights 48%. League level: BTTS 54%, Over 2.5 50%.
xG, shots and style
Sacramento Republic has higher xG: 1.50 vs 1.42. Sacramento Republic: 12.4 shots per match, Las Vegas Lights: 12.3.
Match halves
Sacramento Republic: half-time lead 24%, second-half goals 0.76. Las Vegas Lights: half-time lead 24%, second-half goals 0.68.
Goals by minute
Sacramento Republic: 76-90+ (10 goals). Las Vegas Lights: 31-45+ (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
USL Championship: 2.73 goals per match, BTTS 54%, Over 2.5 50%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 6 previous H2H matches were available: 2-2-2. Average goals 2.17, BTTS 33%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Sacramento Republic have a clear home advantage: they have won 58% of their home matches and concede an average of just 0.75 goals, while Las Vegas Lights have lost 50% of their away matches and concede an average of 1.75 goals. The hosts also create better chances, averaging 1.62 xG at home compared with the visitors’ 1.25 away, and their 4.67 shots on target per match outstrip their opponents’ 3.25. Sacramento are unbeaten in their last five matches, although they have recorded as many as four draws; Las Vegas have lost three times over that span and conceded 7 goals. The visitors still have a realistic chance of scoring, averaging 1.5 goals on the road, but the hosts’ more solid defence and superior chance quality point towards a home win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
This season, both teams scored in 62% and 67% of their matches, respectively, above the league average of 54%. Las Vegas average 1.50 goals per match and have failed to score in only 8% of games, which supports backing them to find the net, despite Sacramento conceding an average of 1.08 goals. The hosts average 1.08 goals, but their xG stands at 1.57, while Las Vegas concede 1.75 goals despite opponents recording an xG of 1.53—so Sacramento also have good reason to score. Caution is warranted given the last 5 matches: Las Vegas scored an average of just 0.8 goals in that run, and both teams scored in 40% of those games. However, the stronger season-long indicators point to BTTS - Yes, with both teams expected to score.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
At least two goals were scored in 77% of Sacramento’s matches and 83% of Las Vegas’s fixtures, making Over 1.5 goals the strongest signal. The home side averages 1.57 xG, while the visitors allow opponents 1.53 xG, giving Sacramento a solid basis to score one or two goals. Las Vegas averages 1.50 goals per season, although that figure has fallen to 0.80 over its last five matches, reducing confidence in picks on higher goal lines. Across those same five matches, both teams went Over 2.5 goals in only 20% of cases, so Over 1.5 goals is a more cautious choice than backing three or more goals.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
A half-time draw is the most likely outcome: Sacramento went into the break level in 62% of its matches, compared with 33% for Las Vegas, while the teams' average first-half goals scored were almost identical—0.62 and 0.58, respectively. The hosts could gain the upper hand after the break, as Las Vegas concedes an average of 1.08 goals in that period, compared with just 0.38 for Sacramento. Sacramento's higher xG, indicating the quality of the chances created, also supports a home win: 1.57 versus 1.25 for the visitors. The hosts have not lost any of their last five matches, while the visitors have suffered three defeats and conceded an average of 1.4 goals per game. Sacramento's four draws over this spell keep the X/X outcome in contention, but Las Vegas's recent defensive struggles make X/1 a slightly stronger pick.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Sacramento Republic | Las Vegas Lights | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 30% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Sacramento Republic is 125% better for: last-5 form.
1.8 pts / match - Sacramento Republic · 0.8 pts / match - Las Vegas Lights
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Sacramento Republic is 59% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.88 goals / match - Sacramento Republic · 1.4 goals / match - Las Vegas Lights
Sacramento Republic scores in 76% of matches (19 of 25 matches), while Las Vegas Lights keeps a clean sheet in 28% (7 of 25 matches).
Las Vegas Lights scores in 84% of matches (21 of 25 matches), while Sacramento Republic keeps a clean sheet in 36% (9 of 25 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Sacramento Republic
Over / Under - Las Vegas Lights
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Sacramento Republic - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 24% of matches and wins 40%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Las Vegas Lights - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 24% of matches and wins 36%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (10 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +7 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (7 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Sacramento Republic
Las Vegas Lights
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (USL Championship).
Teams vs league
| Sacramento Republic | Liga | Las Vegas Lights | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.20 | 2.73 | • 2.68 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 52% | 54% | ▲ 64% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 32% | 50% | ▼ 48% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 36% | 28% | • 28% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 56% | 65% | ▲ 80% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 68% | 78% | ▼ 72% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
- Sacramento RepublicSubstitutionOn: Michelle Jonathan Benítez ValenzuelaOff: Alfredo Midence Alvarado
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (6): Sacramento Republic 2 - 2 - 2 Las Vegas Lights. Average goals 2.17, both teams scored in 33% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Sacramento Republic vs Las Vegas Lights?
The USL Championship match finished Sacramento Republic 3:2 Las Vegas Lights. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Sacramento Republic and Las Vegas Lights?
In the last 6 head-to-head matches Sacramento Republic won 2, Las Vegas Lights won 2 and 2 ended level. These games averaged 2.17 goals, with both teams scoring in 33% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Sacramento Republic vs Las Vegas Lights?
Sacramento Republic score 1.32 goals per game on average and Las Vegas Lights 1.28. The USL Championship average is 2.73 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 50% of games. Both teams score in 52% of Sacramento Republic's matches and 64% of Las Vegas Lights's.
What form are Sacramento Republic and Las Vegas Lights in?
Over the last 5 games Sacramento Republic have a 2-3-0 record (1.80 points per game) and Las Vegas Lights 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Sacramento Republic vs Las Vegas Lights?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.