Sacramento Republic vs Phoenix Rising: match statistics

Sacramento Republic are showing clearly better form: they have won 3 of their last 5 matches, scoring 9 goals and conceding just 2, while Phoenix Rising have managed only 1 win and scored 5 goals. At home, the hosts win 67% of their matches, averaging 1.89 goals scored and just 0.78 conceded, whereas the visitors lose 50% of their away fixtures and average 0.90 goals scored. Sacramento’s advantage is also evident in chance creation: their average xG stands at 1.60 compared with Phoenix’s 1.08, while they register 4.67 shots on target per match versus 2.30 for their opponents. Phoenix fail to score in 30% of their away appearances, while Sacramento keep a clean sheet in 44% of home matches, further strengthening the case for a home win. The visitors can still rely on a draw, having drawn 30% of their away games, but the difference in attacking efficiency, defensive solidity and current form clearly favors Sacramento.

Sacramento Republic are in a very solid defensive phase: they have conceded just 2 goals in their last 5 matches, averaging 0.4 per game, while their xG against is only 0.77. Phoenix Rising score just 0.9 goals per game this season and average 2.3 shots on target, which limits the visitors’ chances of breaking through this defense. The hosts do have strong attacking potential, with an average xG of 1.93 and 1.67 goals scored per game, while Phoenix concede an average of 1.4 goals. However, the key point is that BTTS - Yes landed in only 20% of Sacramento’s last five matches, while the hosts kept a clean sheet in 33% of their league games this season. The most likely scenario is therefore Sacramento scoring while Phoenix fail to reply, supporting the BTTS - No pick.

Sacramento creates an average of 1.93 xG per match, while Phoenix allows opponents 1.42 xG, clearly supporting a scenario of around 1–2 home goals. The visitors score just 0.90 goals per game this season, whereas Sacramento conceded only 0.40 goals per match over their last 5 games and allowed just 0.77 xG. The 3.5-goal line was exceeded in 33% of Sacramento’s matches and in just 10% of Phoenix’s, while 67% and 90% of their respective games ended below this line. Even with Sacramento’s strong recent output of 1.8 goals scored per match over five rounds, Phoenix’s limited attacking potential reduces the likelihood of four goals. The strongest pick is Under 3.5, as the data from both teams points to a controlled game with the home side in charge, but without the need for a high-scoring result.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Sacramento Republic win, as both teams were level after 45 minutes in 80% of their last five matches. Across the season, Phoenix were level at half-time in 60% of their games and scored just 0.30 goals per match before the break, while Sacramento conceded only 0.44 goals during that phase. After the break, the home side have greater attacking potential: they average 1.11 goals, compared with just 0.60 for the visitors, while Sacramento won the second half in 44% of matches, compared with 20% for Phoenix. The hosts’ advantage is also evident in the quality of chances created, with their average xG standing at 1.93 versus 1.08 for their opponents, while shots on target average 6.78 compared with 2.30. In addition, Sacramento are in better form, winning 3 of their last 5 matches and conceding an average of 0.4 goals in those games, whereas Phoenix have recorded only 1 victory.