Salzburg vs Sturm Graz: match statistics
Salzburg vs Sturm Graz: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Salzburg play Sturm Graz in Bundesliga (Austria). The match date is 3 May 2026 at 17:00. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Salzburg: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match. Sturm Graz: 2-3-0, 1.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Salzburg scores 1.75 and concedes 1.28 goals per match. Sturm Graz scores 1.59 and concedes 1.09. League average: 2.70 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Salzburg 69%, Sturm Graz 56%. Over 2.5: Salzburg 63%, Sturm Graz 41%. League level: BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 51%.
xG, shots and style
Salzburg has higher xG: 1.77 vs 1.71. Salzburg: 15.7 shots per match, Sturm Graz: 15.7.
Match halves
Salzburg: half-time lead 38%, second-half goals 0.84. Sturm Graz: half-time lead 38%, second-half goals 0.91.
Goals by minute
Salzburg: 76-90+ (14 goals). Sturm Graz: 76-90+ (14 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Bundesliga: 2.70 goals per match, BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 51%.
Head-to-head
3 H2H matches: 0-2-1. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 67%.
Match description
I back the away win ('2') because Sturm Graz top the table and boast strong away metrics: 64% away wins and an average of 2.07 goals scored on the road versus Salzburg’s 1.93 at home. The visitors are more efficient in finishing — shot conversion 14% vs Salzburg’s 11%, with averages of 14.71 shots (5.21 on target) vs the hosts’ 17.79 shots (5.43 on target). Matches without a scored goal occur in only 7% for Sturm compared to 29% for Salzburg. Defensively Sturm also performs better: they concede 1.07 goals on average away and keep 43% clean sheets, whereas Salzburg concede 1.36 at home and have only 21% clean sheets. In the last 5 matches Salzburg averaged 1.8 points per game (W L W W L), while Sturm averaged 1.4 (W D D D W), indicating Salzburg have more wins but Sturm are stable and unbeaten in that period. I therefore give higher probability to the visitors, while acknowledging a realistic draw scenario.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Salzburg | Sturm Graz | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 31% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.33 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Sturm Graz is 125% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / match - Salzburg · 1.8 pts / match - Sturm Graz
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Salzburg is 10% better for: goals scored per match.
1.75 goals / match - Salzburg · 1.59 goals / match - Sturm Graz
Sturm Graz is 17% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.28 goals / match - Salzburg · 1.09 goals / match - Sturm Graz
Salzburg scores in 81% of matches (26 of 32 matches), while Sturm Graz keeps a clean sheet in 38% (12 of 32 matches).
Sturm Graz scores in 91% of matches (29 of 32 matches), while Salzburg keeps a clean sheet in 16% (5 of 32 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Salzburg
Over / Under — Sturm Graz
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Salzburg - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 38% of matches and wins 41%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Sturm Graz - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 38% of matches and wins 50%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -2 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 0% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (14 goli). Concedes most in 31-45 (13). Late-goal balance (76-90): +7 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (14 goli). Concedes most in 61-75 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): +9 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Salzburg
Sturm Graz
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Bundesliga).
Teams vs league
| Salzburg | Liga | Sturm Graz | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.03 | 2.70 | • 2.69 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 69% | 55% | • 56% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 63% | 51% | ▼ 41% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 16% | 25% | ▲ 38% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 88% | 74% | ▼ 63% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 81% | 78% | ▲ 81% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Salzburg 0 - 2 - 1 Sturm Graz. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 67% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Salzburg vs Sturm Graz?
The Bundesliga match finished Salzburg 1:1 Sturm Graz. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Salzburg and Sturm Graz?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Salzburg won 0, Sturm Graz won 1 and 2 ended level. These games averaged 2.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 67% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Salzburg vs Sturm Graz?
Salzburg score 1.75 goals per game on average and Sturm Graz 1.59. The Bundesliga average is 2.70 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 51% of games. Both teams score in 69% of Salzburg's matches and 56% of Sturm Graz's.
What form are Salzburg and Sturm Graz in?
Over the last 5 games Salzburg have a 1-1-3 record (0.80 points per game) and Sturm Graz 2-3-0 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Salzburg vs Sturm Graz?
The statistical background for Salzburg vs Sturm Graz — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.