Samsunspor vs Konyaspor: match statistics

Samsunspor at home averages 1.49 xG and 14.15 shots per match with 3.77 on target and 58% possession, while Konyaspor away posts 1.39 xG, 12.77 shots and 4.23 on target with 51% possession. Defensively the hosts look stronger — Samsunspor concedes 1.00 goal at home on average (xG against 1.01) and has 38% clean sheets, whereas Konyaspor concedes 1.85 goals away (xG against 1.62) and has recorded no away clean sheets (0%). In the last 5 matches Samsunspor scored 8 goals (1.6 per match) with a 3–2 win–loss record, translating to 1.8 points per match. Konyaspor in the same period has 5 goals (1.0 per match) and a 3–1–1 record with 2.0 points per match, while showing higher shot conversion (~9% vs 6%) and a lower percentage of matches without scoring away (23% vs 46% for Samsunspor at home). Considering the hosts’ better control of the game and higher xG combined with the visitors’ noticeably weaker defense on the road, I favour a Samsunspor win.

The 'both teams to score' scenario is strongly supported by Konyaspor’s statistics: seasonal BTTS 77% and 0% clean sheets with an average of 1.85 goals conceded per game, increasing the likelihood of the opponent scoring. Samsunspor has a seasonal BTTS of 57% and a BTTS rate of 60% in the last 5 matches; in those five games they averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, so the hosts also regularly score and concede. xG analysis shows Samsunspor generates 1.55 xG per match while Konyaspor concedes 1.62 xG per match; conversely Konyaspor creates 1.39 xG and Samsunspor concedes 0.96 xG, which jointly suggests scoring opportunities on both ends. Additionally, shots on target are similar (4.07 vs 4.23) and the league averages 2.59 goals per match, with over 2.5 percentages of 36% for home teams and 62% for away teams, reinforcing the BTTS scenario. In light of these concrete figures I recommend choosing BTTS - Yes with a probability of 75% versus 25% for No, because signals of Konyaspor’s weak defense and the regularity of goals from both teams dominate.

Samsunspor averages 1.14 goals per match, Konyaspor 1.15; xG shows 1.55 for Samsunspor and 1.39 for Konyaspor, while xG against is 0.96 (Samsunspor) and 1.62 (Konyaspor). Matching the home attack (1.55) against the away defense (1.62) and the away attack (1.39) against the home defense (0.96) yields a forecast of 1.59 goals for Samsunspor and 1.18 for Konyaspor, total 2.77. Seasonally Over 1.5 occurred in 79% of Samsunspor’s home matches and 100% of Konyaspor’s away matches, and both teams scored in 57% and 77% of cases respectively, therefore strong support for Over 1.5 (~90%). Season-long Over 2.5 rates are 36% for Samsunspor and 62% for Konyaspor (average ~49%), but the xG total of 2.77 and the home side’s recent form (Over 2.5 in 60% of last 5 matches) argue for increasing the probability of Over 2.5 to about 58%. Over 3.5 is unlikely (14%/31% seasonally, average ~23%), so I recommend betting Over 1.5 as the strongest and most reliable signal.

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a Samsunspor win at full-time (X/1) — I assign this a 32% probability. Seasonally the home side have been level at the break in 50% of matches and the visitors in 46%, which provides a strong signal for a draw after 45 minutes. After the interval the home team are stronger: they average 0.86 goals in the second half and have a positive second-half goal differential of +4, while Konyaspor concedes on average 0.92 goals in the second half and has a -4 differential. Additionally, Samsunspor generate 1.55 xG and Konyaspor concedes on average 1.62 xG; the season-long 1.29 points per game for the home side versus 0.92 for the visitors also support a home comeback after the break. Alternatives are a full-time draw (X/X 13%) or the visitors maintaining their lead (2/2 20%), especially given that second halves frequently see over 0.5 goals (home 79%, away 92%).