San Telmo vs Estudiantes Caseros: match statistics

San Telmo hold a slight home advantage: they average 1.00 goals at home, while Estudiantes Caseros average just 0.71 away, and the visitors have failed to score in 50% of such matches. The hosts also create significantly better chances, posting an average xG of 1.65 compared with Estudiantes’ 1.08, along with 12.43 shots per match versus 8.71. The visitors’ defence is somewhat more solid, conceding 0.93 goals per away game compared with San Telmo’s 1.07 at home, which significantly increases the likelihood of a balanced, low-scoring encounter. In their last five matches, San Telmo have collected 8 points through 2 wins and 2 draws, while Estudiantes have earned 7 points and suffered 2 defeats. With San Telmo winning 36% of their home matches and Estudiantes losing 43% of their away fixtures, a narrow home victory is the most likely outcome.

Seasonal data clearly supports BTTS - No: San Telmo have recorded both teams scoring in 40% of their matches, while Estudiantes Caseros have done so in just 29%, against a league average of 40%. The visitors score only 0.71 goals per match on average and failed to score in as many as 50% of their games, which is the main argument against them finding the net. San Telmo concede an average of 0.80 goals and keep a clean sheet in 40% of matches, while Estudiantes Caseros manage only 2.5 shots on target per game compared with the hosts’ 3.8. The low percentage of matches finishing over 2.5 goals—27% for San Telmo and 29% for the visitors—also points to a closed game with limited chances. Both teams have recorded BTTS in 40% of their last five matches, but their current form is not sufficient to outweigh Estudiantes Caseros’ poor seasonal attacking efficiency.

The profile of both teams clearly points to a match with a limited number of chances: San Telmo score an average of 1.07 goals, while Estudiantes Caseros manage only 0.71. The hosts concede an average of 0.80 goals, compared with 0.93 for the visitors, while their average xG figures stand at 1.31 and 1.08 respectively, supporting a projection of around 1.95 goals. Under 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of San Telmo’s matches and 71% of Estudiantes’ games, while the 3.5 line has not been exceeded in 93% and 100% of their respective appearances. Shot production is also moderate, with San Telmo recording 3.8 shots on target per match and Estudiantes just 2.5. The strongest option is Under 3.5, as even with a slightly more open recent run, very little data suggests a scenario featuring four or more goals.

A draw at half-time is the most likely starting point: San Telmo were level at the break in 60% of their matches, while Estudiantes Caseros recorded a half-time draw in 50%. The visitors score just 0.21 goals per match before the break and failed to score in the first half in as many as 86% of their games, whereas the hosts concede only 0.40 goals during this phase. After the interval, San Telmo should have greater potential, creating an average of 1.31 xG compared with their opponents’ 1.08 xG and also registering 3.8 shots on target per match versus Estudiantes’ 2.5. The hosts have been more consistent throughout the season, averaging 1.53 points per match compared with the visitors’ 1.14, while Estudiantes have lost 43% of their matches. Moreover, in their last five games, San Telmo averaged 1.0 goal after half-time and won the second half in 60% of cases, supporting the scenario of a half-time draw followed by a home win at full-time.