São Bernardo vs Londrina: match statistics

São Bernardo have the home-field advantage: although they average 1.08 goals scored at home, Londrina concede as many as 1.69 goals per away match and have kept no clean sheets on the road. The hosts also create higher-quality chances, averaging 1.40 xG compared with the visitors’ 1.25, while taking more shots—13.77 to 11.77 per match. Londrina’s form is clearly alarming, having failed to win any of their last five matches, scoring just 2 goals and suffering 3 defeats. São Bernardo have also failed to produce an impressive run, with 1 win in their last 5 outings, but Londrina have lost 69% of their away matches, while the hosts draw in as many as 46% of their home games. A narrow São Bernardo victory is therefore the most likely outcome, although the draw remains a notable risk.

The signal for BTTS - No is driven primarily by Londrina’s attacking problems: they have scored just 2 goals in their last 5 matches, averaging 0.4 per game. São Bernardo have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their matches this season, while Londrina have failed to score in 38% of their appearances. However, the home side have solid attacking credentials, creating an average of 1.48 xG and registering 4.0 shots on target per match, while Londrina concede an average of 1.69 goals and allow opponents 1.78 xG. The visitors are supported by a season BTTS rate of 62%, but their current both-teams-to-score rate is only 40%, compared with 80% for São Bernardo. With the league-average BTTS rate at 48%, the more likely scenario is that the hosts score, while at least one team—most likely Londrina—fails to find the net.

São Bernardo is building a solid foundation for scoring, with an average xG of 1.48, while Londrina allows opponents 1.78 xG and has not kept a single clean sheet. However, the visitors have been clearly weaker in attack over their last five matches, scoring just 2 goals—an average of 0.4 per game—compared with their season average of 1.08. Although Londrina’s matches went Over 2.5 goals in 69% of cases, both teams recorded Over 2.5 goals in only 40% of their last five appearances. The Under 3.5 goals line has the edge, as 77% of Londrina’s matches and 58% of São Bernardo’s games ended with no more than three goals, while the projected total of 2.55 goals does not indicate a high risk of a four-goal outcome.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a São Bernardo victory, as the hosts were level after 45 minutes in 67% of their matches, while in the last five games both teams recorded a half-time draw in 60% of cases. Londrina were trailing at half-time in as many as 69% of their away appearances, conceding an average of 0.92 goals before the break, whereas São Bernardo allowed opponents just 0.58 goals. After the interval, the hosts score an average of 0.75 goals, while Londrina have failed to score a single second-half goal in their last five matches. São Bernardo’s advantage is also evident in the quality of chances: their average xG stands at 1.48 compared with 1.25 for the visitors, while Londrina allow opponents an xG of 1.78. The visitors have not won any of their last five matches, and their 69% defeat rate this season further strengthens the case for a home victory after the break. The recommended HT/FT selection is X/1.