São Paulo vs Vitória: match statistics
São Paulo vs Vitória: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
São Paulo played Vitória in Serie A (Brazil). The match was played on 11 October 2026. Venue: Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
São Paulo: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match. Vitória: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
São Paulo scores 1.14 and concedes 1.17 goals per match. Vitória scores 1.10 and concedes 1.45. League average: 2.66 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: São Paulo 55%, Vitória 38%. Over 2.5: São Paulo 38%, Vitória 41%. League level: BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 52%.
xG, shots and style
São Paulo has higher xG: 1.48 vs 1.34. São Paulo: 13.4 shots per match, Vitória: 12.3.
Match halves
São Paulo: half-time lead 34%, second-half goals 0.66. Vitória: half-time lead 31%, second-half goals 0.66.
Goals by minute
São Paulo: 61-75 (9 goals). Vitória: 61-75 (9 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Serie A: 2.66 goals per match, BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 52%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-2. Average goals 1.67, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
São Paulo have a clear home advantage: they have won 57% of their home matches, while Vitória are yet to record an away win and have lost 64% of their away fixtures. The hosts average 1.57 goals scored and 0.86 conceded at home, whereas the visitors score just 0.71 goals per game away from home and concede 2.14. Chance quality also favours São Paulo: their home xG stands at 1.65, while Vitória allow chances worth an average xG of 1.92 on the road. Both teams have won just one of their last five matches, but São Paulo conceded 6 goals in that stretch compared with Vitória’s 9. The hosts’ weaker recent form increases the risk of a draw, but the home-and-away records clearly point to a São Paulo win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The strongest signal points to Vitória failing to score: they average 0.71 goals away from home and fail to find the net in 43% of matches, while São Paulo keep a clean sheet in 64% of their home games. The hosts concede just 0.86 goals per match at home, further limiting the visitors’ chances. São Paulo should have greater scoring potential, with a home xG of 1.51, while Vitória allow opponents an away xG of 1.92 and concede an average of 2.14 goals. Although BTTS - Yes landed in 40% and 60% of the two teams’ last five matches, respectively, the rate is just 21% in São Paulo’s home games. A home win to nil is therefore more likely than both teams scoring.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
São Paulo average 1.29 goals at home, while Vitória score only 0.71 goals away, limiting the potential for a high-scoring game. Although the visitors concede an average of 2.14 goals, the hosts have scored just 0.6 goals per game across their last 5 matches. The 3.5-goal line has not been exceeded in 79% of São Paulo’s home matches and 64% of Vitória’s away matches. The hosts have kept a clean sheet in 64% of their home matches, while the visitors have failed to score in 43% of their away games, so even Vitória’s weaker defence does not necessarily point to a goal-fest. With 2.35 goals projected in total, Under 3.5 goals is the strongest pick.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The strongest scenario is São Paulo leading at the break and winning after 90 minutes: the hosts were ahead at half-time in 50% of their matches, while Vitória trailed at the break in 64% of their away games. Vitória concede an average of 1.07 goals in first halves, whereas São Paulo keep a clean sheet in 79% of those periods, limiting the visitors’ chances of taking an early lead. The hosts’ advantage is also reflected in full-match statistics: they win 64% of their home games, while Vitória have yet to record an away win and concede an average of 2.14 goals. However, São Paulo’s recent form calls for a more cautious assessment of the pick: they were level at half-time in 60% of their last five matches, making a draw at half-time followed by a home win a significant alternative.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| São Paulo | Vitória | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 31% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.28 | 0.26 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Vitória is 17% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - São Paulo · 1.4 pts / match - Vitória
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
São Paulo is 24% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.17 goals / match - São Paulo · 1.45 goals / match - Vitória
São Paulo scores in 76% of matches (22 of 29 matches), while Vitória keeps a clean sheet in 38% (11 of 29 matches).
Vitória scores in 69% of matches (20 of 29 matches), while São Paulo keeps a clean sheet in 21% (6 of 29 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - São Paulo
Over / Under - Vitória
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
São Paulo is 11% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.38 pts / match - São Paulo · 1.24 pts / match - Vitória
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
São Paulo - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 34% of matches and wins 34%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Vitória - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 31% of matches and wins 34%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +3 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (9 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (9 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (13). Late-goal balance (76-90): -6 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
São Paulo
Vitória
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie A).
Teams vs league
| São Paulo | Liga | Vitória | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.31 | 2.66 | ▼ 2.55 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 55% | 59% | ▼ 38% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 38% | 52% | ▼ 41% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 21% | 23% | ▲ 38% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 72% | 75% | • 76% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 90% | 79% | • 79% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): São Paulo 1 - 0 - 2 Vitória. Average goals 1.67, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of São Paulo vs Vitória?
The Serie A match finished São Paulo 2:1 Vitória. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between São Paulo and Vitória?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches São Paulo won 1, Vitória won 2 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 1.67 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before São Paulo vs Vitória?
São Paulo score 1.14 goals per game on average and Vitória 1.10. The Serie A average is 2.66 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 52% of games. Both teams score in 55% of São Paulo's matches and 38% of Vitória's.
What form are São Paulo and Vitória in?
Over the last 5 games São Paulo have a 2-0-3 record (1.20 points per game) and Vitória 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for São Paulo vs Vitória?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for São Paulo vs Vitória: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.