Sarasota Paradise vs One Knoxville: match statistics
Sarasota Paradise vs One Knoxville: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Sarasota Paradise played One Knoxville in USL League One (United States). The match was played on 4 April 2026. Final score: 1:2.
Current form
Sarasota Paradise: 1-1-1, 1.33 points/match. One Knoxville: 2-1-1, 1.75 points/match.
Goal statistics
Sarasota Paradise scores 1.00 and concedes 1.00 goals per match. One Knoxville scores 1.25 and concedes 1.00. League average: 2.86 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Sarasota Paradise 33%, One Knoxville 50%. Over 2.5: Sarasota Paradise 33%, One Knoxville 50%. League level: BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 54%.
xG, shots and style
One Knoxville has higher xG: 1.69 vs 1.46. Sarasota Paradise: 14.7 shots per match, One Knoxville: 15.0.
Match halves
Sarasota Paradise: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 0.33. One Knoxville: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 0.25.
Goals by minute
Sarasota Paradise: 0-15 (1 goals). One Knoxville: 16-30 (2 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
USL League One: 2.86 goals per match, BTTS 57%, Over 2.5 54%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
One Knoxville is the favourite: they sit 2nd in the table, average 3 goals away and have a 23% shot conversion rate on the road, while Sarasota are 10th and score an average of 1 goal in home matches. The visitors average 7 shots on target and 13 attempts per away match versus the hosts’ 3 shots on target and 14.67 attempts; despite slightly fewer attempts the visitors convert chances into goals far more often (23% vs 7%). The difference in chance quality also favours One Knoxville: average away xG for the visitors is 1.76 compared to the hosts’ home xG of 1.46, and the visitors have 0% of matches without scoring versus 33% for Sarasota. Sarasota’s defence looks solid at home (conceding 1.0 goal per match on average and a home goal difference of 0), while One Knoxville concedes 2.0 goals on average away, which could lead to an open game with goals at both ends. Considering the higher conversion (23% vs 7%), superior xG (1.76 vs 1.46) and league position (2nd vs 10th), I back the away win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
One Knoxville has a seasonal BTTS rate of 100% and scores an average of 3.0 goals per match, while Sarasota manages only 0.67 goals per match, suggesting the visitors almost always score. xG shows 1.76 xG for One Knoxville versus 0.92 xG that Sarasota opponents typically generate, and the visitors’ shot conversion is 23% versus 4% for the hosts with averages of 7.0 and 5.33 shots on target respectively, which favors a goal from the visitors. Sarasota has a high clean sheet rate (67%) on the season, but in the last 5 matches the hosts conceded an average of 1.0 goal (5 conceded), while One Knoxville conceded 0.8 goals (4 conceded), so recent form supports an exchange of goals. Additionally, in the last 5 fixtures BTTS occurred in 40% of Sarasota’s matches and 60% of One Knoxville’s matches, and the league average BTTS is 56%, so the balance of signals leads me to forecast BTTS - Yes with high probability.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Expected goals based on xG: home 1.46 (attacking xG 1.66 and opponent defensive xG 1.26, average (1.66+1.26)/2=1.46), away 1.34 (attacking xG 1.76 and home defensive xG 0.92, average (1.76+0.92)/2=1.34), total ≈2.80 goals. A Poisson model with λ=2.80 yields probability Over 1.5 ≈77% (≥2 goals), Over 2.5 ≈53% (≥3 goals) and Over 3.5 ≈31% (≥4 goals). Additionally, One Knoxville averages 3.0 goals per game, has 100% of matches over 1.5 and 2.5 goals and a high conversion rate of 23% from 7.0 shots on target, whereas Sarasota Paradise averages only 0.67 goals per game with a low conversion of 4% (though the home side records 67% clean sheets). In light of these figures the strongest signal is the Over 1.5 line — it has a clear statistical edge; Over 2.5 offers only a marginal edge, and Over 3.5 is unlikely.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
One Knoxville has a 100% win rate this season (winPercentage_away = 100.0) and led at the break in 100% of matches (leadingAtHTPercentage_away = 100.0), averaging 3.0 goals per game (seasonScoredAVG_away = 3.0). Sarasota Paradise averages 0.67 goals per game (seasonScoredAVG_home = 0.67) and has not led at the break this season (leadingAtHTPercentage_home = 0.0), indicating a clear offensive deficit for the home side. xG figures are similar (xG 1.76 for the visitors vs 1.66 for the hosts), but One Knoxville has markedly better shot conversion 23% vs 4% and more shots on target (7.0 vs 5.33), which translates into a higher practical goal output. Half-Time statistics are unambiguous: the visitors average 3.0 goals by half-time (scoredAVGHT_away = 3.0) versus 0.33 for the hosts (scoredAVGHT_home = 0.33), so the most likely scenario is One Knoxville leading at 45 minutes and winning at full-time (2/2), assigned a 55% probability; 10% is attributed to a draw at half-time with the visitors winning at full-time (x/2), and 5% to the 1/2 turnaround.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Sarasota Paradise | One Knoxville | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 20% | 38% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.22 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
One Knoxville is 32% better for: last-5 form.
1.33 pts / match - Sarasota Paradise · 1.75 pts / match - One Knoxville
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
One Knoxville is 25% better for: goals scored per match.
1 goals / match - Sarasota Paradise · 1.25 goals / match - One Knoxville
Sarasota Paradise scores in 67% of matches (2 of 3 matches), while One Knoxville keeps a clean sheet in 50% (2 of 4 matches).
One Knoxville scores in 75% of matches (3 of 4 matches), while Sarasota Paradise keeps a clean sheet in 33% (1 of 3 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Sarasota Paradise
Over / Under - One Knoxville
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Sarasota Paradise is 6% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.33 pts / match - Sarasota Paradise · 1.25 pts / match - One Knoxville
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Sarasota Paradise - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 33%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
One Knoxville - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 50%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| Average goals in match | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| 1 goal | 67% | 67% |
| 2 goals | 33% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 33% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 67% | 67% |
| No goal | 33% | 67% |
| Goal difference | 0 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.25 | 1.25 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 goal | 50% | 50% |
| 2 goals | 50% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 50% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 50% | 75% |
| No goal | 50% | 75% |
| Goal difference | +1 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (1 goal). Concedes most in 16-30 (1). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (2 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Sarasota Paradise
One Knoxville
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (USL League One).
Teams vs league
| Sarasota Paradise | Liga | One Knoxville | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.00 | 2.86 | ▼ 2.25 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 33% | 57% | ▼ 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 33% | 54% | ▼ 50% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 33% | 25% | ▲ 50% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 67% | 79% | ▼ 50% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 67% | 71% | ▼ 50% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
FAQ
What was the result of Sarasota Paradise vs One Knoxville?
The USL League One match finished Sarasota Paradise 1:2 One Knoxville. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Sarasota Paradise vs One Knoxville?
Sarasota Paradise score 1.00 goals per game on average and One Knoxville 1.25. The USL League One average is 2.86 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 54% of games. Both teams score in 33% of Sarasota Paradise's matches and 50% of One Knoxville's.
What form are Sarasota Paradise and One Knoxville in?
Over the last 5 games Sarasota Paradise have a 1-1-1 record (1.33 points per game) and One Knoxville 2-1-1 (1.75 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Sarasota Paradise vs One Knoxville?
The statistical background for Sarasota Paradise vs One Knoxville — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.