Sarasota Paradise vs Spokane Velocity: match statistics
Sarasota Paradise vs Spokane Velocity: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Sarasota Paradise played Spokane Velocity in USL League One (United States). The match was played on 5 September 2026. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Sarasota Paradise: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Spokane Velocity: 4-0-1, 2.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Sarasota Paradise scores 1.09 and concedes 1.61 goals per match. Spokane Velocity scores 1.52 and concedes 1.29. League average: 2.95 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Sarasota Paradise 61%, Spokane Velocity 52%. Over 2.5: Sarasota Paradise 57%, Spokane Velocity 67%. League level: BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 60%.
xG, shots and style
Sarasota Paradise has higher xG: 1.46 vs 1.45. Sarasota Paradise: 12.6 shots per match, Spokane Velocity: 12.1.
Match halves
Sarasota Paradise: half-time lead 17%, second-half goals 0.70. Spokane Velocity: half-time lead 43%, second-half goals 0.71.
Goals by minute
Sarasota Paradise: 46-60 (6 goals). Spokane Velocity: 16-30 (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
USL League One: 2.95 goals per match, BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 60%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 1.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Sarasota Paradise have a clearly weaker overall season record, with 6 wins and 36 goals conceded in 22 matches, but they perform significantly better at home: they win 50% of their fixtures and average 1.5 goals per game. At home, the hosts create chances worth an average of 1.59 xG, register 13.9 shots and 5 shots on target per match, while Spokane generate only 1.40 xG and 0.88 goals away from home. Spokane sit 5th and have won 3 of their last 5 matches, but their away form remains a concern: they have lost 50% of their away fixtures and failed to score in 50% of them. Sarasota’s defence also does not provide complete security, conceding an average of 1.4 goals at home and allowing as many as 13 goals across their last five matches overall. Despite the visitors’ better recent run, the hosts’ advantage in chance creation and Spokane’s poor finishing away from home slightly favour a Sarasota win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
The BTTS signal is particularly clear from the teams’ current form: Sarasota saw both teams score in 80% of their last 5 matches, while Spokane did so in as many as 100%. During this period, the hosts conceded an average of 2.6 goals per game, with an xG against them of 1.87, significantly increasing Spokane’s chances, as the visitors scored an average of 2.2 goals. Sarasota score an average of 1.92 goals at home, while Spokane allow opponents 1.50 goals per game away from home and keep a clean sheet in only 25% of matches. The visitors do have a low season BTTS rate of 38% and failed to score in 50% of matches, but their recent run and Sarasota’s defensive struggles are stronger arguments in favour of a goal for both teams. In addition, the average xG of both teams across their last five appearances stands at 1.62 and 1.37, respectively, supporting a scenario with goals at both ends.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Sarasota Paradise score an average of 1.92 goals at home, while Spokane Velocity concede 1.50 goals per away match, giving the hosts a solid basis to find the net. The visitors are in very good attacking form, averaging 2.2 goals scored across their last five matches, while Sarasota conceded as many as 2.6 goals over the same period. Both teams had at least three goals in 80% of their last five matches, while the league average stands at a high 2.96 goals. At the same time, the Over 1.5 goals line is safer than higher thresholds: on a season-long basis, both teams have cleared it in 75-77% of matches. The projected total of 3.05 goals clearly favours an Over 1.5 goals bet.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The strongest scenario is Spokane Velocity leading at the break and holding on to win, as the visitors have won 3 of their last 5 matches, while Sarasota have won only 1 and suffered 3 defeats. In this run, Spokane have averaged 2.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match, whereas the hosts have managed just 1.2 goals and conceded as many as 2.6. Spokane were ahead at half-time in 60% of their last five matches, while Sarasota were trailing after the first half in 40%; the corresponding scoring averages over this period are 1.2 goals scored by Spokane and 1.4 conceded by the hosts. In addition, Sarasota have scored only 0.4 goals in the second halves of their last five matches, limiting the likelihood of a turnaround if they fall behind, despite their significantly better home-season results.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Sarasota Paradise | Spokane Velocity | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 32% | 32% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.27 | 0.39 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Spokane Velocity is 71% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Sarasota Paradise · 2.4 pts / match - Spokane Velocity
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Spokane Velocity is 39% better for: goals scored per match.
1.09 goals / match - Sarasota Paradise · 1.52 goals / match - Spokane Velocity
Spokane Velocity is 25% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.61 goals / match - Sarasota Paradise · 1.29 goals / match - Spokane Velocity
Sarasota Paradise scores in 74% of matches (17 of 23 matches), while Spokane Velocity keeps a clean sheet in 24% (5 of 21 matches).
Spokane Velocity scores in 71% of matches (15 of 21 matches), while Sarasota Paradise keeps a clean sheet in 22% (5 of 23 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Sarasota Paradise
Over / Under - Spokane Velocity
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Spokane Velocity is 49% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.09 pts / match - Sarasota Paradise · 1.62 pts / match - Spokane Velocity
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Sarasota Paradise - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 17% of matches and wins 30%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Spokane Velocity - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 43% of matches and wins 57%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 2.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 60% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +3 | +4 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (6 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): -6 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (7 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Sarasota Paradise
Spokane Velocity
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (USL League One).
Teams vs league
| Sarasota Paradise | Liga | Spokane Velocity | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.70 | 2.95 | ▼ 2.81 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 61% | 59% | ▼ 52% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 57% | 60% | ▲ 67% |
| Clean sheets | • 22% | 23% | • 24% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 48% | 72% | ▲ 76% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 87% | 81% | ▲ 86% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Sarasota Paradise 0 - 0 - 1 Spokane Velocity. Average goals 1.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Sarasota Paradise vs Spokane Velocity?
The USL League One match finished Sarasota Paradise 1:1 Spokane Velocity. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Sarasota Paradise vs Spokane Velocity?
Sarasota Paradise score 1.09 goals per game on average and Spokane Velocity 1.52. The USL League One average is 2.95 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 60% of games. Both teams score in 61% of Sarasota Paradise's matches and 52% of Spokane Velocity's.
What form are Sarasota Paradise and Spokane Velocity in?
Over the last 5 games Sarasota Paradise have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Spokane Velocity 4-0-1 (2.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Sarasota Paradise vs Spokane Velocity?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.