Sarpsborg 08 vs Molde: match statistics
Sarpsborg 08 vs Molde: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Sarpsborg 08 played Molde in Eliteserien (Norway). The match was played on 25 May 2026. Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Sarpsborg 08: 1-0-4, 0.60 points/match. Molde: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Sarpsborg 08 scores 1.00 and concedes 1.56 goals per match. Molde scores 1.67 and concedes 1.11. League average: 2.99 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Sarpsborg 08 56%, Molde 44%. Over 2.5: Sarpsborg 08 44%, Molde 33%. League level: BTTS 53%, Over 2.5 55%.
xG, shots and style
Sarpsborg 08 has higher xG: 1.48 vs 1.38. Sarpsborg 08: 12.3 shots per match, Molde: 12.0.
Match halves
Sarpsborg 08: half-time lead 22%, second-half goals 0.11. Molde: half-time lead 44%, second-half goals 0.78.
Goals by minute
Sarpsborg 08: 31-45+ (4 goals). Molde: 46-60 (5 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Eliteserien: 2.99 goals per match, BTTS 53%, Over 2.5 55%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 4 previous H2H matches were available: 3-1-0. Average goals 3.25, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Molde has a clear form advantage: in the last 5 matches the visitors recorded 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss, scoring 8 goals and conceding 4, which yields an average of 2.0 points per game, while Sarpsborg in their last five have only 1 win and 4 losses, 4 goals scored and 10 conceded (0.6 points per game). Home match statistics show Sarpsborg averages 13.25 shots and 4.5 on target per game with an average xG of 1.55, while Molde away averages 10.25 shots, 3.75 on target and xG 1.14 — so the hosts generate more attempts and higher xG, but this doesn’t translate into results. Defensively the advantage is with Molde: Sarpsborg conceded 10 goals in their last five matches (2.0 per game) versus 4 conceded by Molde (0.8 per game); additionally clean sheet percentage is 0% for Sarpsborg at home compared to 25% for Molde away. Molde also has higher away possession (55% vs 49%) and a better goal difference in the last five matches (8–4), therefore I predict a win for the visitors and assess probabilities as 60% for Molde, 25% for a draw and 15% for Sarpsborg.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I back BTTS - Yes because Sarpsborg at home has a season goals average of 2.4 and xG_for 1.57, while Molde concede an average away xG of 2.01, giving the hosts a realistic chance to score. The visitors have scored 8 goals in their last 5 matches (1.6 per game) with recent xG_for 1.25, whereas Sarpsborg conceded 10 goals in those 5 matches (2.0 per game), increasing the likelihood Molde will also score. Season BTTS rates are 40% for Sarpsborg and 50% for Molde, and the league average is 53% BTTS matches, so the overall league trend slightly favors both teams finding the net. The counterarguments are Molde’s low away goals average of 0.75 and shot conversion of only 7%, and the fact Sarpsborg keep a clean sheet in 40% of home games, so a no-goal outcome for one side is possible. Summing up, considering the last 5 matches (Sarpsborg conceded 2.0, Molde scored 1.6) and the teams’ xG (1.57 vs 1.14), I give 60% for Yes and 40% for No.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The xG model produces a total of 2.71 (xG Sarpsborg 1.57 vs Molde 1.14), which via a Poisson distribution translates to roughly a 75% chance of at least 2 goals and ~51% for at least 3 goals. Seasonal goal averages are 3.15 (Sarpsborg at home 2.4 + Molde away 0.75), while the league average is 2.99 goals per match, further supporting the Over side. Sarpsborg averages 13.4 shots with 4.8 on target and has a high conversion rate of 18%, whereas Molde has 10.25 shots, 3.75 on target and a conversion of 7%, and Molde concedes an xG of 2.01 per match — all favoring goals for the home side. However, note Sarpsborg’s drop in form over the last 5 matches (4 scored and 10 conceded, averaging 0.8–2.0), which reduces the chance of a very high scoreline (Over 3.5 ~29%). In light of these numbers the strongest and safest signal is Over 1.5 (≈75%), while Over 2.5 is only mildly probable (~51%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Seasonal statistics clearly favor Sarpsborg 08: at home they average 2.4 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per match, winning 80% of home games, and they led at the break in 60% of cases (3 of 5) with an average of 1.2 goals scored and 0.2 conceded by half-time. Molde away scores only 0.75 goals and concedes 1.75, with away xG of 1.14 versus xG against 2.01, indicating the visitors’ weaker defense. The hosts register more shots (13.4 vs 10.25) and have a much higher finishing rate (18% vs 7%), so Sarpsborg more frequently creates and converts chances, including before the break. Additionally, Sarpsborg have not been trailing at half-time at home (trailingAtHT_home = 0.0) and have higher xG of 1.57 versus Molde’s 1.14, therefore the scenario of the home side leading at the break and winning the match appears strongest. For that reason I select HT/FT 1/1 as the primary pick (45%), with smaller probabilities for X/1 (20%) and 1/X (10%), while scenarios that begin with Molde leading are assessed as very unlikely (0%).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Sarpsborg 08 | Molde | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 38% | 36% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.21 | 0.39 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Molde is 233% better for: last-5 form.
0.6 pts / match - Sarpsborg 08 · 2 pts / match - Molde
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Molde is 67% better for: goals scored per match.
1 goals / match - Sarpsborg 08 · 1.67 goals / match - Molde
Molde is 41% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.56 goals / match - Sarpsborg 08 · 1.11 goals / match - Molde
Sarpsborg 08 scores in 67% of matches (6 of 9 matches), while Molde keeps a clean sheet in 33% (3 of 9 matches).
Molde scores in 78% of matches (7 of 9 matches), while Sarpsborg 08 keeps a clean sheet in 11% (1 of 9 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Sarpsborg 08
Over / Under - Molde
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Molde is 37% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.22 pts / match - Sarpsborg 08 · 1.67 pts / match - Molde
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Sarpsborg 08 - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 22% of matches and wins 22%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Molde - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 44% of matches and wins 56%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -3 | -3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (4 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (5 goals). Concedes most in 16-30 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Sarpsborg 08
Molde
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Eliteserien).
Teams vs league
| Sarpsborg 08 | Liga | Molde | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.56 | 2.99 | ▼ 2.78 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 56% | 53% | ▼ 44% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 44% | 55% | ▼ 33% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 11% | 25% | ▲ 33% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 89% | 82% | ▼ 78% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 67% | 78% | • 78% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (4): Sarpsborg 08 3 - 1 - 0 Molde. Average goals 3.25, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Sarpsborg 08 vs Molde?
The Eliteserien match finished Sarpsborg 08 2:1 Molde. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 and Molde?
In the last 4 head-to-head matches Sarpsborg 08 won 3, Molde won 0 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 3.25 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Sarpsborg 08 vs Molde?
Sarpsborg 08 score 1.00 goals per game on average and Molde 1.67. The Eliteserien average is 2.99 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 55% of games. Both teams score in 56% of Sarpsborg 08's matches and 44% of Molde's.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 and Molde in?
Over the last 5 games Sarpsborg 08 have a 1-0-4 record (0.60 points per game) and Molde 3-1-1 (2.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Sarpsborg 08 vs Molde?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.