Septemvri Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv: match statistics

Septemvri Sofia have the home advantage: the hosts generate an average of 1.42 xG per match, while Botev Plovdiv allow opponents 1.85 xG away from home. The Sofia side take more shots at home (9.5 vs. 8.25) and hit the target more often, averaging 4.75 shots on target compared with the visitors’ 4. Botev have lost 75% of their away matches, kept no clean sheets in those games and failed to score in as many as 50% of them. Both teams have won 2 of their last 5 matches, but Septemvri conceded 6 goals during that period, compared with Botev’s 8, further indicating a slightly more stable home defence. With Septemvri scoring an average of 1 goal at home and Botev conceding 2 goals per away match, a narrow home win is the most likely outcome.

Septemvri Sofia have recorded BTTS in 60% of their matches, compared with 50% for Botev Plovdiv and a league average of 56%. The hosts score an average of 1.60 goals and create chances worth 1.65 xG, while Botev concede as many as 2.00 goals per match, with 1.85 xG allowed to opponents. The visitors’ chances of scoring are further supported by the fact that Septemvri concede an average of 1.20 goals and have failed to keep a clean sheet in 3 of their last 5 matches. Botev have not kept a single clean sheet this season, so the hosts’ attack, averaging 6.8 shots on target per match, should have a clear path to goal. However, both sides’ recent scoring form has been moderate, at 1.20 goals per match over their last five fixtures, meaning the BTTS - Yes edge is noticeable but not decisive.

Septemvri average 1.60 goals at home, while Botev concede as many as 2.00 goals away, giving the hosts a clear chance to score. At the same time, the last five matches played by both teams produced an average of 1.20 goals scored per game, while Botev’s xG has dropped to 0.99, which limits the outlook for the visitors. Over 2.5 goals landed in only 40% of the last five matches for each team, despite their season-long rates for this line standing at 40% and 50%, respectively. Botev have kept a clean sheet in none of their away matches, but they have failed to score in as many as 50% of them, making a result in the region of 2–3 total goals more likely than an open, high-scoring game. The expected goals total of 2.40 provides the strongest edge for Under 3.5 goals.

Septemvri Sofia have the clearer potential over the full 90 minutes: they score an average of 1.6 goals at home, while Botev Plovdiv concede as many as 2.0 goals per away match. The hosts’ advantage is also evident in the quality of chances, with an average xG of 1.65 compared with 1.14 for the visitors, while they record 6.8 shots on target per game against their opponents’ 4.0. A draw is nevertheless more likely at half-time: Septemvri have failed to score before the break in their last five matches and were level at half-time in 60% of them. During the same period, Botev led after 45 minutes in 40% of their matches, but lost 60% of their games overall, which limits the credibility of their advantage lasting until full-time. The hosts improve after the break, averaging 1.2 second-half goals in their last five matches, so the strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Septemvri win at full-time.