Sesvete vs Dugopolje: match statistics

Sesvete come into this match on the back of a 3:0 home win in which they had 55% possession, registered 5 shots and hit the target 4 times. In their last five matches, the hosts have scored 7 goals, while Dugopolje have managed just 4 and conceded as many as 10. Sesvete’s defence has yet to concede a goal at home, while their opponents’ average xG stands at just 0.62, indicating that they have been limiting the quality of opposition chances. However, it should be noted that the hosts’ xG was only 0.85 despite scoring three goals, so their efficiency from the previous match may be difficult to replicate. Home advantage and the stronger recent record favour a Sesvete win, although a draw remains a realistic outcome.

BTTS - Yes is slightly preferred, as both teams recorded this scenario in 60% of their last five matches, close to the league average of 63%. Sesvete averaged 1.4 goals scored during this period but also conceded 1.6, clearly increasing the likelihood of a response from Dugopolje. The visitors scored only 0.8 goals per match, although their average xG of 1.18 and 2.0 goals conceded per game point to an open profile in their recent performances. The hosts also do not look fully reliable defensively, allowing opponents an average xG of 1.24, while Dugopolje create chances worth 1.18 xG. The risk for the “Yes” option is the visitors’ lower finishing efficiency, which is why the BTTS edge is not decisive. However, recent-match data supports goals from both sides more strongly than a clean sheet for either team.

Sesvete’s last five matches produced an average of 3.0 goals, while Dugopolje’s games averaged 2.8 goals, with 4 of 5 matches in both cases going Over 2.5 goals. During this period, Sesvete scored 1.4 goals per match and conceded 1.6, whereas Dugopolje scored 0.8 goals but allowed opponents 2.0 goals. The creative potential is also significant: average xG stands at 1.29 for the home side and 1.18 for the visitors, supporting a forecast of approximately 2.63 total goals. The Over 1.5 goals line offers the greatest edge, as even with moderate finishing efficiency, both teams’ weak defenses should allow at least two goals.

Dugopolje more often started their last five matches with the advantage, leading at the break in 40% of games, while Sesvete were ahead at that stage in only 20%. During this run, the hosts conceded an average of 0.6 goals before half-time, while the visitors scored 0.6, supporting a slight advantage for the away side in the first half. Sesvete’s form is relatively stronger over the full match, however, as the team averaged 1.2 points per game compared with Dugopolje’s 0.8, although the hosts lost 60% of their last five matches. The visitors also lost 60% of their games and conceded an average of 2.0 goals, meaning Sesvete turnaround scenarios still account for a significant share of the outcomes, but the most likely single scenario is Dugopolje maintaining their lead until full-time. The 2/2 pick remains a moderately strong option, as the visitors’ season data is very limited and their recent defensive performances have clearly been disappointing.