Shaanxi Union vs Yanbian Longding: match statistics

Shaanxi Union have a clear home advantage: they have won 63% of their home matches, averaging 1.63 goals scored and conceding just 0.50 goals per game. The hosts also create more chances, averaging 15.88 shots, 5 shots on target and an xG of 1.78, while Yanbian Longding’s away xG stands at just 0.87. Yanbian are higher in the table and have collected 10 points from their last five matches compared with Shaanxi’s 7, but they fail to score in 44% of away games. The visitors are efficient, converting 21% of their shots into goals, yet they average only 7.33 shots per match and will come up against a Shaanxi defence that keeps a clean sheet in 50% of home games. Shaanxi’s control of the game, reflected in their average 62% possession, and the superior quality of their chances created support a narrow home victory.

The case for a BTTS - Yes outcome is primarily supported by current form: both Shaanxi Union and Yanbian Longding recorded BTTS in 4 of their last 5 matches, or 80% of games. During this period, both teams averaged 1.8 goals scored, while the hosts also conceded as many as 1.8 goals per match, clearly increasing the visitors’ chances of finding the net. Shaanxi has recorded BTTS in 64% of its matches this season, while Yanbian’s lower 33% rate and the visitors’ 44% of matches without scoring represent significant risks to this pick. Nevertheless, Yanbian produced an xG of 1.33 across the last five rounds, while the hosts’ defence allowed opponents an xG of 1.03, making a goal for the visitors a realistic scenario. The hosts should respond, as they average 11.73 shots and 4.45 shots on target per match, compared with 7.33 and 3.11 for Yanbian.

Shaanxi Union average 1.45 goals, while Yanbian Longding average 1.56, but both teams have solid defensive metrics: the hosts concede 0.82 goals per match, compared with 1.00 for the visitors. On a season-long basis, fewer than 3.5 goals were scored in 73% of Shaanxi’s matches and as many as 78% of Yanbian’s, while the Over 2.5 line landed in only 45% and 44% of cases, respectively. The hosts create more chances, with an average xG of 1.40 and 4.45 shots on target, whereas Yanbian’s xG stands at just 0.87, limiting the potential for a very high-scoring game. The last five matches were more open, with both teams scoring 1.8 goals per game, but the projected total of 2.62 goals still clearly supports a maximum of three goals. The strongest pick is therefore Under 3.5, backed by the consistently low frequency of matches featuring four or more goals.

Shaanxi Union have the higher season xG, 1.40 compared with Yanbian’s 0.87, and also create more chances, averaging 11.73 shots and 4.45 shots on target per match versus their opponents’ 7.33 and 3.11. The hosts are particularly solid after the break, averaging 0.91 goals scored and conceding just 0.27, while Yanbian score and concede 0.67 goals per second half. Although Yanbian have won 56% of their matches this season compared with Shaanxi’s 36%, their last five games have produced just 0.8 goals scored before half-time, while Shaanxi have scored between the 76th and 90th minutes on seven occasions. The most likely scenario is for the hosts to lead at the break and preserve their advantage, supported by their superior chance creation and significantly more effective defensive performance after the interval.