Shabab Al Sahel vs Tadamon Sour: match statistics

Shabab Al Sahel have a slight edge: they have taken 10 points from their last 5 matches, compared with Tadamon Sour’s 9. The hosts scored 9 goals during that period, while the visitors managed 6, pointing to greater attacking efficiency from the home side. However, Tadamon Sour have conceded just 4 goals, one fewer than their opponents, and could make it difficult for the hosts to capitalise on their advantage. Shabab Al Sahel have won 3 of their last 5 matches and, according to the results record, are on a three-match winning streak, while the visitors have alternated wins with defeats. The lack of useful home, away and xG data limits confidence in the forecast, so a home win is the most likely outcome, although a draw remains a realistic possibility.

In their last 5 matches, both teams scored in 40% of games, so recent results do not favor the scenario in which both teams find the net. Shabab Al Sahel averaged 1.8 goals during this period, while Tadamon Sour averaged 1.2, but the hosts generated just 0.69 xG per match compared with 1.67 xG for the visitors. Tadamon conceded an average of 0.8 goals, and Shabab 1.0, further limiting the chances of goals at both ends. Despite the visitors’ higher xG, the identical 40% BTTS rate and the low number of goals conceded support a BTTS - No pick, meaning at least one team is expected not to score.

In their last 5 matches, Shabab Al Sahel averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Tadamon Sour scored 1.2 goals and conceded 0.8. Despite these figures, only 40% of each team's last 5 matches finished with at least 3 goals. The xG picture is mixed: the hosts averaged 0.69 xG compared with 1.67 xG for the visitors, but Tadamon Sour's opponents created an average of 1.59 xG, so a low-scoring game is far from certain. With a projected total of 2.45 goals, Under 3.5 goals is the most likely side, with an estimated probability of 77%. The season figures are 0 and do not provide a reliable benchmark, so the forecast is based primarily on the last 5 matches.

Shabab Al Sahel have averaged 1.8 goals per game across their last five matches, compared with Tadamon Sour's 1.2, and come into this fixture on a three-match winning streak. A draw at half-time is likely, as the visitors were level at the break in 50% of their recent matches and conceded an average of just 0.25 goals before half-time. After the break, the advantage could shift to the home side: they averaged 0.75 goals in the second half, while the visitors conceded 0.5. The hosts have not lost a second half in the most recent sample analysed, whereas the visitors lost one in 25% of their matches. Therefore, a half-time draw followed by a Shabab Al Sahel win is the strongest, though uncertain, HT/FT pick.