Shenzhen Juniors vs Nanjing City: match statistics

Shenzhen Juniors sit in 2nd place, while Nanjing City are only 11th, and over their last five matches the hosts have averaged 1.6 points per game compared with 0.6 for the visitors. At home, Shenzhen concede just 0.78 goals per match and keep a clean sheet in 67% of their games, in stark contrast to Nanjing’s 1.22 goals conceded and just 11% clean-sheet rate away from home. The hosts also create better chances: their average xG is 1.63 compared with 1.20 for their opponents, while they manage 4.89 shots on target per match—almost twice Nanjing’s 2.44. The visitors are winless in their last five matches, recording 3 draws and 2 defeats, and lose 56% of their away fixtures. The draw remains a possibility, as Shenzhen win 44% of their home matches and draw 44% as well, but the defensive advantage and superior chance creation strongly favour the hosts.

Seasonal BTTS indicators are moderately high, standing at 60% for Shenzhen Juniors and 56% for Nanjing City; however, current form clearly weakens the scenario of both teams scoring. Shenzhen has scored just 2 goals in its last 5 matches, averaging 0.4 per game, and BTTS - Yes has not landed once during this period. Nanjing averages 0.8 goals across its last five appearances and fails to score in 33% of its matches this season, increasing the risk that the visitors will be held scoreless. The hosts keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches, while Nanjing has a low shot conversion rate of 6%, compared with Shenzhen's 10%. Although Nanjing recorded BTTS - Yes in 80% of its last five matches, the low goal production of both teams and Shenzhen's defensive form, having conceded just 3 goals during this period, marginally support BTTS - No. BTTS - No means that at least one team fails to score; it does not automatically mean a 0:0 draw or that neither team will score.

The goal profile points to a low-chance match: Nanjing City average only 0.67 goals scored, while Shenzhen Juniors concede an average of 1.00 goal. In their last five matches, the hosts scored just 2 goals, while the visitors scored 4, equating to 0.4 and 0.8 per game, respectively. The 3.5 line went Under in 80% of Shenzhen’s matches and in all of Nanjing City’s games, while neither team has recorded a match with more than 4.5 goals. Recent form also supports a low-scoring outcome, as only 20% of each team’s last five matches went Over 2.5 goals. The estimated total of 1.95 goals gives a clear edge to Under 3.5 goals.

Shenzhen Juniors have the clearer full-match profile: they score an average of 1.20 goals and concede 1.00, while Nanjing City score just 0.67 and allow opponents 1.22. The hosts have won 40% of their matches, compared with only 11% for the visitors, and have collected 1.6 points per game over their last five matches versus Nanjing’s 0.6, with Nanjing failing to win any of those fixtures. Before the break, Shenzhen average 0.80 goals, almost twice Nanjing’s 0.44, while the visitors have been trailing at half-time in 60% of their last five appearances. The hosts’ advantage is also evident in chance creation: their xG stands at 1.41 compared with 1.20, and they average 3.30 shots on target against the opponents’ 2.44. The most likely scenario is therefore Shenzhen leading at the break and maintaining their advantage until full-time, although the hosts’ 40% half-time draw rate leaves a significant chance of an X/1 turnaround.