Sidama Bunna vs Mebrat Hayl: match statistics
Sidama Bunna vs Mebrat Hayl: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Sidama Bunna played Mebrat Hayl in Ethiopia Premier League (Ethiopia). The match was played on 4 July 2026. Venue: Yirgalem Stadium. Final score: 0:1.
Current form
Sidama Bunna: 4-1-0, 2.60 points/match. Mebrat Hayl: 1-3-1, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Sidama Bunna scores 1.16 and concedes 0.59 goals per match. Mebrat Hayl scores 0.84 and concedes 0.70. League average: 1.78 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Sidama Bunna 32%, Mebrat Hayl 38%. Over 2.5: Sidama Bunna 27%, Mebrat Hayl 27%. League level: BTTS 40%, Over 2.5 28%.
xG, shots and style
Sidama Bunna has higher xG: 1.25 vs 1.10. Sidama Bunna: 8.0 shots per match, Mebrat Hayl: 6.8.
Match halves
Sidama Bunna: half-time lead 35%, second-half goals 0.62. Mebrat Hayl: half-time lead 22%, second-half goals 0.49.
Goals by minute
Sidama Bunna: 76-90+ (11 goals). Mebrat Hayl: 46-60 (9 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ethiopia Premier League: 1.78 goals per match, BTTS 40%, Over 2.5 28%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-0. Average goals 0.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Sidama Bunna has a clear advantage in home metrics: they are 1st in the home table, win 50% of home matches, record 67% clean sheets and concede just 0.44 goals while scoring 1.06 goals per game. Mebrat Hayl are 6th away, with only a 28% away win rate, averaging 0.83 goals scored and 0.94 conceded, and failed to score in 44% of away fixtures. Form differentials are significant: Sidama in the last 5 matches have 4 wins and 1 draw with a goal record of 8:2 (1.6 scored/0.4 conceded) and 2.6 points per game, whereas Mebrat in the last 5 have 1 win, 3 draws and 1 loss with a 5:5 record (1.0/1.0) and 1.2 PPG. In quality of chances the hosts also edge it: average xG for Sidama at home is 1.2 versus 1.15 xG for Mebrat away, shots on target 2.94 vs 2.17 and a higher conversion rate 14% vs 12%. Considering the better defence (0.44 vs 0.94 goals conceded), higher clean sheet percentage (67% vs 39%) and markedly superior last-5 form (2.6 vs 1.2 PPG), I predict a home win and estimate its probability at around 65% (draw 20%, away win 15%).
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams have low seasonal BTTS rates: Sidama Bunna 37% and Mebrat Hayl 39%, averaging 38%, which suggests BTTS occurs in only about 4 out of 10 matches. The hosts boast a strong defense — clean sheet expected in 53% of matches and conceding 0.47 goals per game versus 0.94 for the visitors — so Sidama frequently keeps opponents off the scoresheet. Although Mebrat Hayl recorded BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches, Sidama had BTTS in only 40% of those meetings and scored 8 while conceding 2 across their last five (1.6 and 0.4 per game), which weakens the away signal. Additionally, xG shows both teams generate around 1.04 and 1.15 xG per match but actually score only 0.84 and 0.83 goals, indicating poor finishing; the league is also low-scoring with an average of 1.79 goals per game. Based on this, the No (at least one team fails to score) scenario is more likely than BTTS - Yes.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Data analysis indicates a low-intensity match: seasonal average goals scored are 0.84 (Sidama) and 0.83 (Mebrat), totaling 1.67 goals per game, below the league average of 1.79. xG suggests slightly higher potential (1.04 for Sidama and 1.15 for Mebrat), but actual goal figures are lower, and the share of Over 2.5 matches is limited (21% home, 33% away). In the last 5 matches Sidama averaged 1.6 scored and 0.4 conceded, while Mebrat averages 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded with a high BTTS rate of 80%, which partially increases the risk of isolated high-scoring results but does not reverse the season-long low Over 2.5 trend. The expected goals model gives 1.07 for the home side and 0.99 for the away side (sum 2.06), translating to roughly a 61% chance of at least 2 goals, about 34% for at least 3 goals and around 15% for 4 or more; this favors the Under side. Additionally, the share of matches Over 3.5 is low (11% Sidama, 6% Mebrat), therefore I recommend Under 3.5 as the best single line to play.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
At half-time the most likely outcome is a draw: Sidama were level at the break in 74% of their matches this season, scoring an average of 0.21 goals and conceding only 0.05 by half-time, while the visitors are level at the break in 56% of their games. In the last 5 rounds the home side have shown clear form — winning 4 of 5 (80% wins) and leading at the break in 80% of those matches, and over their last 5 fixtures Sidama score on average 1.6 goals compared to 1.0 for the visitors. After the interval the minute-by-minute statistics and second-half record favour the hosts: Sidama have scored 6 goals in minutes 46–60 (visitors 3) and have a positive second-half goal difference of +4 versus −4 for the away team. The visitors lose 44% of their matches this season and concede an average of 0.94 goals per game, with similar xG figures (1.04 vs 1.15), so the strongest signal from the data is a half-time draw followed by a home win after the break (X/1).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Sidama Bunna | Mebrat Hayl | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 41% | 31% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.16 | 0.16 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Sidama Bunna is 117% better for: last-5 form.
2.6 pts / match - Sidama Bunna · 1.2 pts / match - Mebrat Hayl
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Sidama Bunna is 38% better for: goals scored per match.
1.16 goals / match - Sidama Bunna · 0.84 goals / match - Mebrat Hayl
Sidama Bunna is 19% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.59 goals / match - Sidama Bunna · 0.7 goals / match - Mebrat Hayl
Sidama Bunna scores in 70% of matches (26 of 37 matches), while Mebrat Hayl keeps a clean sheet in 46% (17 of 37 matches).
Mebrat Hayl scores in 54% of matches (20 of 37 matches), while Sidama Bunna keeps a clean sheet in 54% (20 of 37 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Sidama Bunna
Over / Under - Mebrat Hayl
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Sidama Bunna is 21% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.57 pts / match - Sidama Bunna · 1.3 pts / match - Mebrat Hayl
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Sidama Bunna - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 35% of matches and wins 51%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Mebrat Hayl - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 22% of matches and wins 32%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 80% |
| No goal | 0% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +5 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (11 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +5 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (9 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Sidama Bunna
Mebrat Hayl
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ethiopia Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Sidama Bunna | Liga | Mebrat Hayl | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 1.76 | 1.78 | ▼ 1.54 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 32% | 40% | ▼ 38% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 27% | 28% | • 27% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 54% | 40% | ▲ 46% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 59% | 56% | ▼ 41% |
| Goal after half-time | • 59% | 59% | ▲ 62% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Sidama Bunna 0 - 1 - 0 Mebrat Hayl. Average goals 0.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Sidama Bunna vs Mebrat Hayl?
The Ethiopia Premier League match finished Sidama Bunna 0:1 Mebrat Hayl. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Sidama Bunna vs Mebrat Hayl?
Sidama Bunna score 1.16 goals per game on average and Mebrat Hayl 0.84. The Ethiopia Premier League average is 1.78 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 28% of games. Both teams score in 32% of Sidama Bunna's matches and 38% of Mebrat Hayl's.
What form are Sidama Bunna and Mebrat Hayl in?
Over the last 5 games Sidama Bunna have a 4-1-0 record (2.60 points per game) and Mebrat Hayl 1-3-1 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Sidama Bunna vs Mebrat Hayl?
The statistical background for Sidama Bunna vs Mebrat Hayl — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.