Singida Black Stars vs Mtibwa Sugar: match statistics
Singida Black Stars vs Mtibwa Sugar: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Singida Black Stars played Mtibwa Sugar in Ligi kuu Bara (Tanzania). The match was played on 9 May 2026. Final score: 4:0.
Current form
Singida Black Stars: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Mtibwa Sugar: 0-2-3, 0.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Singida Black Stars scores 1.00 and concedes 1.08 goals per match. Mtibwa Sugar scores 0.76 and concedes 1.19. League average: 2.02 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Singida Black Stars 42%, Mtibwa Sugar 48%. Over 2.5: Singida Black Stars 31%, Mtibwa Sugar 38%. League level: BTTS 33%, Over 2.5 36%.
xG, shots and style
Singida Black Stars has higher xG: 1.37 vs 0.98. Singida Black Stars: 5.3 shots per match, Mtibwa Sugar: 3.8.
Match halves
Singida Black Stars: half-time lead 15%, second-half goals 0.50. Mtibwa Sugar: half-time lead 5%, second-half goals 0.43.
Goals by minute
Singida Black Stars: 0-15 (9 goals). Mtibwa Sugar: 76-90+ (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ligi kuu Bara: 2.02 goals per match, BTTS 33%, Over 2.5 36%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-1. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Singida Black Stars possess a clear advantage for this match: at home they win 64% of fixtures, average 10.86 shots and 4.14 on target per game, converting to 1.00 goals and xG 1.61. Mtibwa Sugar have no away wins (0), average only 4.17 shots and 2.17 on target, score 0.33 goals per away game with xG 0.82, and fail to score in 67% of away matches. In the last 5 games the hosts have scored 6 and conceded 6, with 2 wins and 1.4 pts/game, while the visitors have 3 scored and 8 conceded, 0.4 pts/game and 0 wins. Additionally, Singida display better shot conversion (11% vs 4%), superior possession (56% vs 44%), more clean sheets at home (55% vs 33%) and a more favorable home goal difference (+1 vs Mtibwa’s -7 on the road); therefore I favor the home victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
A strong signal against BTTS - Yes comes from the away side’s stats: Mtibwa Sugar fail to score in 67% of their matches this season, average 0.33 goals per game and have a very low shot conversion rate of 4%, which significantly reduces their scoring chances. Singida Black Stars at home have a seasonal BTTS of 58% and score 1.08 goals per game with xG 1.09, but they also concede on average 1.25 goals at home and have only 25% clean sheets, so the hosts could be the sole scorers. In the last 5 matches both teams show 60% BTTS, Mtibwa scored 3 goals in 5 fixtures (0.6 avg) but conceded 8 goals in those 5 games (1.6 per game) and had xG against of 1.46, indicating vulnerability in the away defence. Additionally, the league has a low BTTS of 33% and 82% of matches feature at least one clean sheet, which historically favors a No Goal scenario. Overall I forecast a No (clean sheet expected) signal with a 70% probability vs 30% for Yes (Goal/Goal).
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The total expected xG is about 2.49: for Singida the estimate comes from xG_for_home 1.09 and xG_against_away 1.76 (average ≈1.43), and for Mtibwa from xG_for_away 0.82 and xG_against_home 1.31 (≈1.06). Singida averages 6.78 shots with a 13% conversion (from these parameters ≈0.88 goals), Mtibwa has 4.17 shots with a 4% conversion (≈0.17 goals), and seasonal goal averages are 1.08 vs 0.33. A Poisson model with lambda=2.49 gives P(>1.5) ≈71%, P(>2.5) ≈45% and P(>3.5) ≈24%, which shows a clear edge over the 1.5 line while the chance of 3.5+ is low. Seasonal indicators confirm over 1.5 (Singida 75% of matches >1.5, Mtibwa 56%), whereas >3.5 is rare (17% for hosts, 0% for guests). Therefore the strongest and most consistent signal from the data is over 1.5 (selection: Over on the 1.5 line).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
I back HT/FT X/1: draw at half-time, Singida Black Stars to win. I expect a draw at the break — hosts drew at half-time in 55% of matches and visitors in 44%, while hosts led at the break in only 0% and visitors in 11%, which strongly supports an X at half-time. In the second half the hosts will have the advantage: Singida average 1.08 goals per match versus Mtibwa’s 0.33, have xG 1.09 vs 0.82, more shots (6.78 vs 4.17) and a much higher conversion rate (13% vs 4%). Additionally the hosts scored 6 goals in minutes 76–90 compared to 1 for the visitors and record an average of 1.73 points in second halves, winning 45% of second halves, which justifies a turnaround from a draw to a home win. The visitors have not won any match this season (0% wins), so scenarios with a Mtibwa victory I assess as virtually 0%.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Singida Black Stars | Mtibwa Sugar | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 34% | 36% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.56 | 0.55 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Singida Black Stars is 250% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Singida Black Stars · 0.4 pts / match - Mtibwa Sugar
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Singida Black Stars is 32% better for: goals scored per match.
1 goals / match - Singida Black Stars · 0.76 goals / match - Mtibwa Sugar
Singida Black Stars is 10% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.08 goals / match - Singida Black Stars · 1.19 goals / match - Mtibwa Sugar
Singida Black Stars scores in 69% of matches (18 of 26 matches), while Mtibwa Sugar keeps a clean sheet in 29% (6 of 21 matches).
Mtibwa Sugar scores in 57% of matches (12 of 21 matches), while Singida Black Stars keeps a clean sheet in 31% (8 of 26 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Singida Black Stars
Over / Under - Mtibwa Sugar
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Singida Black Stars is 78% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.19 pts / match - Singida Black Stars · 0.67 pts / match - Mtibwa Sugar
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Singida Black Stars - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 15% of matches and wins 42%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Mtibwa Sugar - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 5% of matches and wins 24%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -2 | +2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -3 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (9 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (15). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (7 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Singida Black Stars
Mtibwa Sugar
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ligi kuu Bara).
Teams vs league
| Singida Black Stars | Liga | Mtibwa Sugar | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.08 | 2.02 | • 1.95 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 42% | 33% | ▲ 48% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 31% | 36% | ▲ 38% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 31% | 41% | ▼ 29% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 38% | 55% | ▲ 67% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 50% | 60% | ▲ 62% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Other recorded players
Away team
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
- Singida Black StarsGoalMossi Nduwumwe
- Singida Black StarsGoalMossi NduwumweAssist: Lamine Diadhiou
- Singida Black StarsGoalLamine DiadhiouAssist: Ande Koffi Habib Cirille
- Singida Black StarsGoalEmmanuel KeyekehAssist: Ande Koffi Habib Cirille
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Singida Black Stars 1 - 0 - 1 Mtibwa Sugar. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Singida Black Stars vs Mtibwa Sugar?
The Ligi kuu Bara match finished Singida Black Stars 4:0 Mtibwa Sugar. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Singida Black Stars and Mtibwa Sugar?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Singida Black Stars won 1, Mtibwa Sugar won 1 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Singida Black Stars vs Mtibwa Sugar?
Singida Black Stars score 1.00 goals per game on average and Mtibwa Sugar 0.76. The Ligi kuu Bara average is 2.02 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 36% of games. Both teams score in 42% of Singida Black Stars's matches and 48% of Mtibwa Sugar's.
What form are Singida Black Stars and Mtibwa Sugar in?
Over the last 5 games Singida Black Stars have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Mtibwa Sugar 0-2-3 (0.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Singida Black Stars vs Mtibwa Sugar?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Singida Black Stars vs Mtibwa Sugar: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.