SJ Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers: match statistics

SJ Earthquakes are unbeaten in their last five matches, recording 2 wins and 3 draws, while Portland Timbers have lost 3 of their last 5 games and collected just 4 points in that span. At home, the hosts create significantly more chances, averaging 16.62 shots and 6.38 shots on target per match, compared with 13.25 and 4.08 respectively for the visitors away from home. The quality of chances also favors San Jose, whose home xG stands at 1.84, while Portland concede as much as 2.12 xG away from home and allow an average of 1.92 goals. Timbers have failed to keep a clean sheet in any away match, and in addition, they have failed to score in 33% of such fixtures. Earthquakes also concede 1.62 goals per game at home, so a goal for the visitors is possible; however, the hosts’ superior current form and attacking potential point to a home win.

The signal for both teams to score is very strong: BTTS occurred in 86% of SJ Earthquakes matches and 67% of Portland Timbers matches, compared with a league average of 63%. The hosts score an average of 2.21 goals per match, while Portland concede 1.92, with the visitors recording a 0% clean-sheet rate. Portland score an average of 1.33 goals, while the SJ Earthquakes defence has kept a clean sheet in only 7% of matches and concedes 1.79 goals per game. In their last five appearances, the Timbers recorded BTTS in 80% of matches and scored an average of 1.8 goals, while their opponents conceded as many as 2.2 goals per game. The xG figures also support a Goal/Goal scenario, standing at 1.62 for the hosts and 1.44 for the visitors.

SJ Earthquakes score an average of 2.21 goals at home, while Portland Timbers concede as many as 1.92 goals per away game, clearly supporting the hosts’ attacking output. The xG profile also points to an open game: 1.62 xG for SJ Earthquakes and 1.44 xG for Portland, with the visitors conceding an average of 2.12 xG. In their last five matches, Portland have scored 9 goals but also conceded 11, while 80% of their games during this period went Over 2.5 goals. At least two goals were scored in 93% of SJ Earthquakes’ matches and in every Portland fixture, making Over 1.5 goals the strongest pick. An additional argument is that both teams rarely keep clean sheets: the hosts in 7% of their matches, and the visitors in none.

SJ Earthquakes have been clearly stronger throughout the season, averaging 2.21 goals per match and winning 50% of their games, while Portland are averaging just 0.67 points per match and have lost 67% of their fixtures. The hosts also hold a clear edge in chance quality, with an xG of 1.62, while Portland allow opponents an xG as high as 2.12. In their last five matches, Earthquakes led at the break in 60% of cases and conceded just 0.4 goals before half-time, whereas the Timbers were behind after 45 minutes in 60% of matches, conceding an average of 1.2 goals. After the interval, the hosts score an average of 1.14 goals while conceding just 0.64, reinforcing the scenario of them maintaining or extending their lead. Portland remain dangerous, scoring an average of 1.33 goals per match, but their 1.92 goals conceded and lack of clean sheets support an HT/FT prediction of SJ Earthquakes leading at half-time and securing the full-time win (1/1).