SJ Earthquakes vs St. Louis City: match statistics

SJ Earthquakes have clearly superior home numbers: they average 1.89 goals scored from 2.05 xG, while St. Louis City score just 0.89 goals away from home with 1.39 xG. The hosts also create significantly more, averaging 18.67 shots and 7.33 shots on target per match, compared with 12.78 and 3.78 for the visitors. St. Louis’ away defensive record leaves room for opponents, as they concede an average of 1.56 goals, have an xG against of 1.50, and keep a clean sheet in just 11% of away matches. However, the visitors are in excellent current form, having won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 11 goals and conceding only 4, while San Jose have lost 3 of their last 5 games. The hosts’ advantage in chance-creation quality and their attacking potential at home point towards a narrow victory, although St. Louis’ current run significantly increases the risk of a draw or an upset.

BTTS - Yes is supported by the high seasonal percentage of matches in which both teams have scored: 67% for the hosts, compared with 56% for St. Louis City, while the league average is 61%. SJ Earthquakes score an average of 1.78 goals at home and create chances worth 1.87 xG, while their opponents concede 1.56 goals away from home and allow 1.50 xG. The visitors have scored just 0.89 goals per match this season, but their last 5 fixtures produced as many as 2.2 goals and 2.02 xG per game. This is particularly significant against the hosts, who conceded 12 goals over the same period, an average of 2.4 per match. St. Louis City have kept a clean sheet in only 11% of their matches, so the most likely scenario is that the in-form hosts will also find the net.

The Over 1.5 goals line is strongly supported by season-long data: at least two goals were scored in 78% of San Jose's matches and in as many as 89% of St. Louis' games. The hosts average 1.87 xG and 5.22 shots on target per match, while the visitors concede an average of 1.56 goals and allow opponents 1.50 xG. The last five matches further support the goals scenario, with St. Louis scoring an average of 2.2 goals and San Jose conceding 2.4 goals per game. The projected total of 2.90 goals also gives the Over 2.5 an edge, but Over 1.5 is clearly the safer option, with only a 20% chance of no more than one goal being scored.

St. Louis City are in clearly better current form: they have collected 13 points from their last five matches, winning four and remaining unbeaten, while SJ Earthquakes have managed only four points and lost three games. The visitors led at the break in 60% of their last five appearances, scoring an average of 1.0 goals before half-time and conceding just 0.2, whereas the hosts were behind after 45 minutes in 60% of their matches during this period and conceded an average of 1.4 goals. The hosts’ seasonal statistical advantage remains significant, as they average 1.78 goals at home with an xG of 1.87, but their recent defensive performances have allowed as many as 2.4 goals per match. St. Louis have averaged 1.2 goals after the break in their last five matches, compared with just 0.4 for the Earthquakes, making the scenario of the visitors leading at half-time and holding on for the win the strongest one—HT/FT: 2/2.