Slaven Koprivnica vs Varaždin: match statistics

Varaždin enter the match as the fourth-placed team, while Slaven Koprivnica sit 10th and lost their only league fixture so far 0:2. The visitors have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 9 goals and conceding just 5 in that period, whereas the hosts have a record of 2 wins and 3 defeats, with a 6:8 goal difference. The disparity is also reflected in the average points tally from their last five appearances: 2.4 for Varaždin compared with 1.2 for Slaven. In the current season, Varaždin opened with a 2:1 victory, while Slaven are yet to score, which points towards a controlled away win. Home advantage could improve the hosts’ chances of keeping the game competitive for periods, but Varaždin’s clearly superior finishing and more stable defence indicate a bet on 2.

The BTTS - Yes pick is primarily supported by Varaždin’s current attacking output, with the team averaging 1.8 goals scored over its last 5 matches, while Slaven conceded 1.6 goals per game. Slaven’s defence looks particularly vulnerable in the underlying data, allowing opponents an average of 2.29 xG per match, compared with Varaždin’s attacking xG of 1.36. During the same period, the hosts scored 1.2 goals per game, while Varaždin conceded an average of 1.0 goal and allowed opponents 1.50 xG, providing a solid basis for Slaven to find the net. However, the signal is not conclusive, as BTTS landed in only 20% of Slaven’s last five matches and 40% of Varaždin’s games. Despite this caution, the combination of the visitors’ high attacking potential and weaknesses in both defences gives a slight edge to the scenario in which both teams score.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as the projected total of 2.70 goals is clearly above this line. In their last five matches, Slaven averaged 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded, while Varaždin scored 1.8 goals per game. Particularly significant is that Slaven allowed opponents an average xG of 2.29, whereas Varaždin created chances worth an average of 1.36 xG. However, both teams had only 40% of their matches finish with at least three goals in their last five outings, meaning the Over 2.5 line remains finely balanced. The league average is 3.0 goals, which further supports the scenario of at least two goals, but does not provide an equally strong edge at higher lines.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Varaždin victory, as the visitors have won 4 of their last 5 matches, while Slaven have suffered 3 defeats over the same period. The opening phase should be relatively even: Slaven were level at the break in 33% of their recent matches, compared with 40% for Varaždin, while home matches have produced an average of just 0.67 goals before half-time. After the interval, the visitors’ advantage increases significantly, as they score an average of 1.0 goal and win the second half in 60% of matches, whereas Slaven have failed to score after the break and lost that period in each of their recent games. The hosts have conceded an average of 2.33 goals after half-time, compared with just 0.6 goals conceded by Varaždin, indicating a strong likelihood that an undecided opening will turn into a final away victory. A Varaždin lead at half-time followed by a win is also a realistic option, as the visitors were ahead after 45 minutes in 40% of their recent appearances; however, the draw at half-time has stronger support due to Slaven’s low scoring output before the break.