Slovan Liberec vs Hradec Králové: match statistics

Slovan Liberec sit higher in the table, in 3rd place compared with Hradec Králové in 8th, and have collected 10 points from their last five matches thanks to 3 wins and a draw. However, the hosts’ home numbers are unconvincing: they have not won a single match, average just 0.5 goals scored, and have failed to score in 50% of their home appearances. Hradec have also yet to score away from home, drawing their only such fixture 0:0, despite averaging 51% possession. Liberec create slightly better chances, with an average xG of 1.25 compared with 1.12 for the visitors, while Hradec allow opponents an xG of 1.58, which gives the hosts a marginal edge. At the same time, the visitors’ defence have kept a clean sheet in their away match so far, making a low-scoring draw a highly realistic scenario.

The stronger signal points to a scenario in which at least one team fails to score: both teams recorded BTTS in only 40% of their last 5 matches, clearly below the league average of 64%. Based on the current away data, Hradec Králové have averaged zero goals scored and failed to find the net in 100% of such matches, although their last 5 games show an improvement to 0.8 goals per match. Liberec have recently been more solid defensively, conceding an average of 0.6 goals and allowing opponents an xG of 0.97, which limits the visitors' chances of breaking through. The hosts should create chances, as their xG from the last 5 matches stands at 1.72, while Hradec's defence allowed opponents an xG of 1.91, but this does not necessarily point to both teams scoring. BTTS - Yes remains possible given the visitors' xG of 1.33 across their last five appearances, but the more likely outcome is BTTS - No, with a clean sheet expected for one of the teams.

In their last five matches, Liberec created chances worth an average of 1.72 xG, while Hradec Králové allowed opponents as much as 1.91 xG, clearly supporting the prospect of a home goal. Over this period, the visitors generated 1.33 xG per match, while Liberec’s defence conceded an average of 0.97 xG, so their chances of scoring remain realistic. The actual results from the last five matches were more restrained: Liberec scored 1.2 goals and Hradec 0.8, yet both teams exceeded 1.5 total goals more often than the low scores alone would suggest. The projected total of 2.65 goals provides the greatest margin of safety for Over 1.5, whereas the 2.5 line is already close to equilibrium, given that only 20% of Liberec’s and 40% of Hradec’s matches finished above 2.5 goals in their last five appearances.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Slovan win at full-time, as both teams were level after 45 minutes in 60% of their last five matches, while each averaged just 0.4 goals before the break. Liberec, however, have a clear edge in final outcomes: they won 3 of their last 5 matches and averaged 2.0 points per game, whereas Hradec won only 1 of 5 and lost 40% of their appearances. After the break, the hosts score an average of 1.0 goals and the visitors 0.6, with Liberec winning the second half in 80% of their last matches, while Hradec have not won any. In addition, the hosts create more in attack, averaging 12.5 shots and 4.0 on target compared with their opponents’ 9.0 and 3.0, while their xG of 1.43 exceeds Hradec’s 1.12. Although Hradec can maintain a favourable draw for long periods, their average of 0.8 goals scored across their last five matches suggests that Liberec are more likely to tilt the game in their favour over time. In HT/FT terms, this supports the X/1 outcome.