Smiltene vs Tukums II: match statistics
Smiltene vs Tukums II: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Smiltene played Tukums II in 1. Liga (Latvia). The match was played on 11 October 2026. Venue: Tepera stadions. Final score: 3:2.
Current form
Smiltene: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match. Tukums II: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Smiltene scores 1.38 and concedes 2.71 goals per match. Tukums II scores 1.29 and concedes 2.86. League average: 3.70 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Smiltene 57%, Tukums II 67%. Over 2.5: Smiltene 67%, Tukums II 71%. League level: BTTS 63%, Over 2.5 70%.
xG, shots and style
Tukums II has higher xG: 1.50 vs 1.25. Smiltene: 8.7 shots per match, Tukums II: 8.4.
Match halves
Smiltene: half-time lead 19%, second-half goals 0.86. Tukums II: half-time lead 19%, second-half goals 0.71.
Goals by minute
Smiltene: 46-60 (7 goals). Tukums II: 76-90+ (9 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
1. Liga: 3.70 goals per match, BTTS 63%, Over 2.5 70%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 1-1-1. Average goals 2.67, BTTS 67%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Smiltene have the home advantage: they win 20% of their home matches, while Tukums II win only 10% of their away games and lose as many as 80%. The hosts average 1.6 goals at home, compared with 1.3 for the visitors away; Smiltene also have a shot conversion rate of 19%, against their opponents’ 10%. The biggest difference is in defence: Smiltene concede an average of 2.8 goals at home, while Tukums II concede as many as 4.2 away, with xG conceded of 1.98 and 2.38, respectively. Both teams have won 2 of their last 5 matches, so current form does not set them apart, although Smiltene scored 10 goals in that spell compared with Tukums II’s 6. The hosts’ weak defence gives the visitors a chance, but Tukums II’s away record points to a Smiltene win.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
BTTS occurred in 64% of Smiltene’s matches and 70% of Tukums II’s, so the season data points towards goals from both teams. The strongest indication comes from the home side: Tukums II concede an average of 4.2 goals per match and have yet to keep a clean sheet, while Smiltene score an average of 1.27 goals. The visitors also have reason to find the net—they score an average of 1.3 goals, while Smiltene concede 1.64 and keep a clean sheet in 27% of matches. However, caution is warranted, as Tukums II have failed to score in 30% of their matches, and BTTS has landed in only 40% of their last five games. Even so, the higher season BTTS rates and both teams’ defensive weaknesses make BTTS - Yes the more likely outcome.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals: this line has been cleared in 91% of Smiltene matches and 100% of Tukums II matches. The visitors concede an average of 4.2 goals per match and have yet to keep a clean sheet, giving the hosts a strong chance of scoring at least twice. Across their last five matches, Smiltene averaged 2.0 goals scored and 2.8 conceded, while Tukums II averaged 1.2 scored and 3.0 conceded; both teams went Over 2.5 goals in 80% of their matches during this period. The forecast of 3.70 total goals also supports higher lines, but Over 1.5 goals offers a clearer edge because it does not require such a high level of finishing efficiency.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The strongest indication that Smiltene will lead at the break is Tukums II’s defensive record: the visitors concede an average of 2.6 goals in first halves and have been trailing at half-time in 70% of their matches. The hosts led at the break in 27% of games, so their own record alone offers no certainty, but their opponents’ weakness clearly increases the likelihood of this scenario. Smiltene’s full-match record also supports them holding on to the lead: they average 1.27 points per match, while Tukums II average just 0.4 points and have lost 80% of their matches. The visitors concede an average of 1.6 goals after half-time, while the hosts score 0.82 goals in that period, making 1/1 the most likely individual HT/FT outcome. There is still significant risk, as both teams have won two of their last five matches, and Smiltene conceded an average of 2.8 goals over that spell.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Smiltene | Tukums II | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 48% | 40% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.14 | 0.18 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.39 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Smiltene is 7% better for: goals scored per match.
1.38 goals / match - Smiltene · 1.29 goals / match - Tukums II
Smiltene is 6% better for: goals conceded per match.
2.71 goals / match - Smiltene · 2.86 goals / match - Tukums II
Smiltene scores in 67% of matches (14 of 21 matches), while Tukums II keeps a clean sheet in 14% (3 of 21 matches).
Tukums II scores in 81% of matches (17 of 21 matches), while Smiltene keeps a clean sheet in 14% (3 of 21 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Smiltene
Over / Under - Tukums II
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Smiltene is 13% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.86 pts / match - Smiltene · 0.76 pts / match - Tukums II
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Smiltene - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 19% of matches and wins 19%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Tukums II - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 19% of matches and wins 24%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Average goals in match | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | 0 | -4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 2.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 3.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -7 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (7 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (13). Late-goal balance (76-90): -7 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (9 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (16). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Smiltene
Tukums II
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (1. Liga).
Teams vs league
| Smiltene | Liga | Tukums II | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 4.10 | 3.70 | ▲ 4.14 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 57% | 63% | ▲ 67% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 67% | 70% | • 71% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 14% | 20% | ▼ 14% |
| Goal before half-time | • 76% | 76% | ▲ 86% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 86% | 83% | ▲ 90% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Away team
Other recorded players
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Smiltene 1 - 1 - 1 Tukums II. Average goals 2.67, both teams scored in 67% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Smiltene vs Tukums II?
The 1. Liga match finished Smiltene 3:2 Tukums II. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Smiltene and Tukums II?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Smiltene won 1, Tukums II won 1 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 2.67 goals, with both teams scoring in 67% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Smiltene vs Tukums II?
Smiltene score 1.38 goals per game on average and Tukums II 1.29. The 1. Liga average is 3.70 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 70% of games. Both teams score in 57% of Smiltene's matches and 67% of Tukums II's.
What form are Smiltene and Tukums II in?
Over the last 5 games Smiltene have a 2-0-3 record (1.20 points per game) and Tukums II 2-0-3 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Smiltene vs Tukums II?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Smiltene vs Tukums II: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.