Southend United vs Scunthorpe United: match statistics

Southend United sit 5th, while Scunthorpe United are 10th, and the hosts made the stronger start to the season by winning their only match so far 3:1. In their last five matches, Southend have scored 6 goals and conceded 4, whereas Scunthorpe have scored just 4 and conceded 5. The hosts have averaged 1.6 points per game over this period, clearly more than the visitors’ 1.0, with Scunthorpe suffering 2 defeats in five outings. Scunthorpe drew their only match of the current season 1:1, suggesting they can limit the damage, but their recent attacking output has been lower. Southend’s advantage in results, goal difference and current league position gives the hosts the best chance of victory, although a draw cannot be ruled out.

The BTTS signal is moderately positive, as both teams recorded this scenario in 60% of their last five matches. Southend averaged 1.2 goals during this period, while Scunthorpe averaged 0.8, with the hosts conceding 0.8 and the visitors 1.0 goals per match. The xG data is more promising for the visitors than their actual finishing: Scunthorpe created an average of 1.57 xG, compared with 1.18 xG allowed by Southend. The hosts also recorded an average xG of 1.22, while the Scunthorpe defence allowed opponents 1.20 xG, indicating a realistic chance of Southend finding the net. The BTTS - Yes tip is also supported by the league BTTS average of 67%, although Scunthorpe’s low average goals scored reduces confidence in the prediction.

Southend’s last five matches produced an average of 2.0 total goals, with the team scoring 1.2 and conceding 0.8. Over the same period, Scunthorpe averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, also pointing to a result closer to two than four goals. Only 40% of the hosts’ last five matches and 20% of the visitors’ matches went Over 2.5 goals, while both teams have seen goals scored by both sides in 60% of their matches. The xG figures from the last five appearances—1.22 for Southend and 1.57 for Scunthorpe—allow for a tight match but do not suggest an extremely open, high-scoring game. Despite the high league average of 3.75 goals, the projected total of 2.35 goals gives a clear edge to Under 3.5 goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Southend United win, as the hosts were level at the break in 60% of their last five matches, compared with 40% for Scunthorpe. Southend averaged 0.8 goals before half-time, while the visitors managed just 0.2, limiting the likelihood of them taking a lead at the break. Across their last five full matches, the hosts scored an average of 1.2 goals and conceded 0.8, whereas Scunthorpe recorded averages of 0.8 and 1.0 goals, respectively. Southend averaged 1.6 points per match during this period, compared with 1.0 for their opponents, while Scunthorpe lost 40% of their matches. The hosts did not concede after half-time in any of their last five matches, so with an even start, they have solid grounds to turn the result in their favour during the latter stages.