Southend United vs Tamworth: match statistics

Southend United sit 3rd, while Tamworth are only 20th, with season records of 4 wins in 6 matches and just 1 win, respectively. The hosts are particularly strong at home: they have won 67% of their matches, drawn none, and average 2.17 xG while allowing opponents just 0.85 xG. Tamworth are yet to win away, lose 67% of their matches, and concede as many as 3.33 goals per game, without keeping a single clean sheet. Southend average 15 shots at home, including 7.33 on target, compared with Tamworth’s 13.33 and 5.33, while also enjoying more possession, recording 67% to the visitors’ 35%. Both teams have scored 9 goals in their last five matches, but Tamworth’s 13 goals conceded over that period further strengthens the case for a home win.

Both teams currently have a 100% BTTS rate, significantly above the league average of 65%, and neither side has kept a clean sheet. Southend score an average of 2.0 goals per match and create chances worth 2.36 xG, while Tamworth concede as many as 3.33 goals per game and allow opponents 1.87 xG. Tamworth should also find the back of the net: they score an average of 2.0 goals and have 1.53 xG, while Southend have conceded in every match despite their opponents’ low xG of 1.21. The trend across the last five matches remains favorable for BTTS - Yes, with BTTS landing in 80% of Southend’s games and 100% of Tamworth’s, while both teams have averaged 1.8 goals scored per match. The strongest scenario is therefore a goal for each side, particularly due to the visitors’ very weak defense and the lack of clean sheets for either team.

Both teams have surpassed the 1.5-goal line in 100% of their matches so far, while also scoring and conceding at least one goal in every game. Southend averages 2.36 xG and 20.67 shots per match at home, whereas Tamworth concedes as many as 3.33 goals and 1.87 xG away from home. In their last five matches, Tamworth has conceded 13 goals, or 2.6 per game, which clearly strengthens the case for the hosts to score at least twice. The visitors are also averaging 1.8 goals across their last five appearances and recording 2.05 xG, so their attacking contribution is a realistic possibility despite Southend's more solid defensive record. Over 1.5 goals is the safest choice, as both teams have a very strong attacking profile and their current results consistently point towards matches featuring at least two goals.

Southend are showing clearly superior current form: they have won 3 of their last 5 matches and averaged 2.0 points per game, while Tamworth have lost 3 of their 5 matches and averaged 0.8 points. The strongest signal concerns the first half, as the hosts were leading at the break in 80% of their last five appearances, whereas the visitors did so on none of those occasions, with Tamworth trailing at half-time in 60% of their matches. Southend averaged 1.0 goals scored and only 0.4 conceded before the break, compared with Tamworth’s 0.6 scored and 1.6 conceded. The hosts’ advantage is also evident in the quality of chances created: their average xG stands at 2.36 versus 1.53 for the visitors, while Tamworth allow opponents an xG of 1.87. After the interval, the hosts still hold the more favourable record, averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded, making a Southend lead at half-time followed by a win at the final whistle the most likely HT/FT outcome.