Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv: match statistics
Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Spartak Varna played Lokomotiv Plovdiv in First League (Bulgaria). The match was played on 3 August 2026. Venue: Stadion Spartak. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Spartak Varna: 1-1-0, 2.00 points/match. Lokomotiv Plovdiv: 1-0-1, 1.50 points/match.
Goal statistics
Spartak Varna scores 2.50 and concedes 1.00 goals per match. Lokomotiv Plovdiv scores 1.00 and concedes 1.00. League average: 2.45 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Spartak Varna 50%, Lokomotiv Plovdiv 50%. Over 2.5: Spartak Varna 100%, Lokomotiv Plovdiv 50%. League level: BTTS 65%, Over 2.5 55%.
xG, shots and style
Lokomotiv Plovdiv has higher xG: 1.55 vs 1.21. Spartak Varna: 10.0 shots per match, Lokomotiv Plovdiv: 11.5.
Match halves
Spartak Varna: half-time lead 100%, second-half goals 1.00. Lokomotiv Plovdiv: half-time lead 0%, second-half goals 0.50.
Goals by minute
Spartak Varna: 31-45+ (2 goals). Lokomotiv Plovdiv: 0-15 (1 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
First League: 2.45 goals per match, BTTS 65%, Over 2.5 55%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-1. Average goals 2.50, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Spartak Varna holds the edge in finishing — they scored 10 goals in the last 5 matches (2.0 per match) and average 2.0 goals per home game, whereas Lokomotiv Plovdiv have 5 goals in their last 5 fixtures (1.0 per match) and average 0.0 goals away. The visitors generate higher quality chances by xG (average away xG for Lokomotiv 1.83 vs Spartak 1.28) and register more shots (16 vs 12) and more shots on target (6 vs 3), but their away conversion is 0% with 100% of away matches without a goal, while Spartak’s home conversion is 17%. The home defense is vulnerable — Spartak concedes 2.0 goals on average at home and has an average xG against of 1.9, suggesting the game could be open and high-scoring. Looking at form, Spartak’s last 5: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss with PPG 2.0; Lokomotiv 2-2-1 with PPG 1.6 — overall favoring the hosts. Based on this, I tip a home win with an approximate probability distribution: Spartak ~60%, draw 20%, Lokomotiv 20%.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I project BTTS - Yes as the more likely outcome based on measurable statistical signals. In the league BTTS occurs in 64% of matches, and in the last 5 fixtures Lokomotiv had BTTS in 60% (3/5) while Spartak only in 20% (1/5) — however Spartak’s season BTTS rate at home is 100%, indicating a sample-size discrepancy. xG analysis supports both teams scoring: Lokomotiv averages 1.83 xG on the road versus the 1.74 xG Spartak typically concedes at home, while Spartak’s xG_for is 1.27 against the 1.07 xG that away teams usually concede. Additionally, in the last 5 matches Spartak scored 10 goals (2.0 avg) and conceded 3 (0.6), and Lokomotiv scored 5 (1.0) and conceded 4 (0.8); Spartak also has a season shot conversion rate of 29% and averages 4 shots on target per match, increasing the likelihood of converting chances. Considering the league BTTS trend of 64%, stronger xG figures on both sides and recent scoring form, the scenario of both teams scoring appears more probable than a No Goal outcome.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Expected goals are approximately 1.17 for Spartak Varna and 1.79 for Lokomotiv Plovdiv (total 2.96), calculated as the team xG average (Spartak 1.27, Lokomotiv 1.83) and xG against the opponent (against Spartak 1.74, against Lokomotiv 1.07). With lambda=2.96 the distribution indicates roughly an 80% probability for Over 1.5, ~57% for Over 2.5 and ~35% for Over 3.5, meaning the 1.5 line has the highest probability. Form supports this: Spartak has 10 goals in the last 5 matches (2.0 per game) and Lokomotiv 5 goals in the last 5 (1.0 per game), together historically ~3.0 goals per game. Additionally Spartak at home has 100% of matches over 2.5 this season and a high conversion rate of 29%, while the visitors generate on average 16 shots and 6 shots on target, which increases the likelihood of goals. Based on this I recommend the Over side on the 1.5 line as the strongest and most probable signal.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The most likely scenario is 1/1 (home team leading at half-time and winning), because the home side led at the break in 4 of their last 5 matches (80%) and average 1.2 first-half goals in those five games versus 0.4 for the visitors. Seasonally the hosts score 2.0 goals per match and have a 100% win rate so far this season, while the away team averages 0.0 goals and has a 0% win rate, which supports a full-time victory for the home side. Although the visitors generate higher xG (1.83 vs. 1.27 for the hosts) and register more shots (16 vs. 7), their conversion rate is 0% versus 29% for the home team — the guests create chances but fail to finish them. The hosts also average 4.0 shots on target and show greater effectiveness in key moments (e.g. goals in the 0–15 and 76–90 minute intervals), so they are more likely to maintain the lead and win. Therefore I assigned 1/1 a 52% probability, 1/X and 1/2 at 18% and 10% respectively, and distributed the remaining combinations across a total of 20% due to the visitors’ lower indicators at half-time and overall.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Spartak Varna | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 35% | 43% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.71 | 0.20 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Spartak Varna is 33% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / match - Spartak Varna · 1.5 pts / match - Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Spartak Varna is 150% better for: goals scored per match.
2.5 goals / match - Spartak Varna · 1 goals / match - Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Spartak Varna scores in 100% of matches (2 of 2 matches), while Lokomotiv Plovdiv keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 2 matches).
Lokomotiv Plovdiv scores in 50% of matches (1 of 2 matches), while Spartak Varna keeps a clean sheet in 50% (1 of 2 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Spartak Varna
Over / Under — Lokomotiv Plovdiv
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Spartak Varna is 500% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
3 pts / match - Spartak Varna · 0.5 pts / match - Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Spartak Varna - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 100% of matches and wins 50%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 1.0 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv - second-half results
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 3.00 | 1.50 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 50% | 100% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 50% |
| No goal | 0% | 50% |
| Goal difference | +3 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 50% |
| 2 goals | 50% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 0% | 100% |
| No goal | 50% | 50% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (2 goli). Concedes most in 46-60 (1). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (1 goli). Concedes most in 31-45 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Spartak Varna
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (First League).
Teams vs league
| Spartak Varna | Liga | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.50 | 2.45 | ▼ 2.00 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 50% | 65% | ▼ 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 100% | 55% | ▼ 50% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 50% | 20% | ▼ 0% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 100% | 75% | ▲ 100% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 100% | 80% | ▼ 50% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Spartak Varna 0 - 1 - 1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv. Average goals 2.50, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
The First League match finished Spartak Varna 1:0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Spartak Varna and Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Spartak Varna won 0, Lokomotiv Plovdiv won 1 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 2.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
Spartak Varna score 2.50 goals per game on average and Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1.00. The First League average is 2.45 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 55% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Spartak Varna's matches and 50% of Lokomotiv Plovdiv's.
What form are Spartak Varna and Lokomotiv Plovdiv in?
Over the last 5 games Spartak Varna have a 1-1-0 record (2.00 points per game) and Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-0-1 (1.50 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Spartak Varna vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.