Spartak Varna vs Ludogorets: match statistics

Ludogorets sit top of the table and remain unbeaten after 6 matches, recording 5 wins and 1 draw, while Spartak Varna have a record of 2 wins and 3 defeats. The visitors are clearly more dangerous away from home: they average 2.5 goals, 12 shots and 7.5 shots on target per match, compared with Spartak’s 1 goal, 7.33 shots and 2.33 shots on target at home. Ludogorets’ superiority is also evident in chance creation, with an average away xG of 1.80, while Spartak’s home xG stands at just 0.97. The hosts have conceded 10 goals in their last 5 matches, whereas the visitors have won 3 of their last 5 games and have not lost any. Spartak can count on home advantage, but with an average possession share of 35%, they should spend long periods defending against a team averaging 57% possession. Therefore, a Ludogorets win is the most likely outcome.

The BTTS - Yes pick does not have a clear edge, as both teams keep clean sheets in 50% of their matches, while Spartak Varna have conceded an average of only 0.5 goals this season. Ludogorets are clearly more dangerous in attack, scoring an average of 2.5 goals, generating an xG of 1.80, and registering 7.5 shots on target per match, so their goal is highly likely. The problem for a Goal/Goal scenario is Spartak’s current attacking form: their xG in the last five matches is just 0.85, while BTTS occurred in only 20% of those games. In their last five appearances, Ludogorets allowed opponents an xG of 1.00 and conceded an average of 1.2 goals, giving the hosts a chance but not enough to offset Spartak’s weaker numbers. With both teams recording a season-long BTTS rate of 50% and the visitors possessing a high-quality defence, a result in which at least one team fails to score is more likely.

Ludogorets score an average of 2.5 goals per match, while Spartak Varna have conceded as many as 2.0 goals per game across their last five fixtures. The visitors create significantly more danger, recording an average xG of 1.80 and 7.5 shots on target, compared with the hosts’ 1.35 xG and 4.25 shots on target. At least two goals were scored in 100% of Ludogorets’ matches and 75% of Spartak’s fixtures, strongly supporting Over 1.5 goals. Caution with higher lines is warranted due to both teams keeping clean sheets in 50% of their matches, as well as the fact that Spartak exceeded 2.5 total goals in only 25% of their appearances. The strongest selection therefore remains Over 1.5 goals, as the visitors’ attacking advantage should be enough to clear the low line even with a limited contribution from the hosts.

Spartak Varna has a strong first-half profile: they have led at the break in 3 of their 4 matches, scoring an average of 1.5 goals before half-time while conceding just 0.25. However, Ludogorets have won all of their away matches to date, averaging 2.5 goals per game, with an xG of 1.80 compared to the hosts’ 1.35. The second half is the key factor, as the visitors score an average of 2.0 goals and have won the second half in 100% of their matches, while Spartak have failed to score a single goal after the break. Recent form also points towards a turnaround, with Ludogorets unbeaten in their last 5 matches, whereas Spartak have suffered 3 defeats during the same period. The most likely scenario is therefore that the hosts will capitalise on their strong start, but Ludogorets’ superior quality and efficiency after the break will secure an away win.