Spartak Varna vs Slavia Sofia: match statistics
Spartak Varna vs Slavia Sofia: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Spartak Varna played Slavia Sofia in First League (Bulgaria). The match was played on 10 May 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Spartak Varna: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Slavia Sofia: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Spartak Varna scores 0.85 and concedes 1.67 goals per match. Slavia Sofia scores 1.18 and concedes 1.15. League average: 2.31 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Spartak Varna 58%, Slavia Sofia 48%. Over 2.5: Spartak Varna 48%, Slavia Sofia 45%. League level: BTTS 43%, Over 2.5 45%.
xG, shots and style
Slavia Sofia has higher xG: 1.44 vs 1.05. Spartak Varna: 8.1 shots per match, Slavia Sofia: 11.4.
Match halves
Spartak Varna: half-time lead 24%, second-half goals 0.55. Slavia Sofia: half-time lead 36%, second-half goals 0.52.
Goals by minute
Spartak Varna: 76-90+ (9 goals). Slavia Sofia: 16-30 (9 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
First League: 2.31 goals per match, BTTS 43%, Over 2.5 45%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-1. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Slavia Sofia is the favorite in this matchup, so I back the away win. Spartak Varna concedes an average of 1.88 goals per home game and has a negative home goal difference (-12), while Slavia concedes only 1.25 goals per away match and has an away goal difference of -4, which favors the visitors defensively. Offensively Slavia produces higher away xG (1.38) than Spartak at home (1.19) and averages 10.69 shots versus 9.35 and 3.88 shots on target versus 3.53, despite lower conversion (9% vs 13%). Both teams show similar short-term form (4 goals and 1 win each in the last 5 matches), with Spartak conceding 5 goals in those five games versus 7 for Slavia, giving mixed short-term signals. I expect an even game with goals from both sides (Spartak FTS 12% at home, Slavia FTS 25% away) and a narrow Slavia victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Seasonal BTTS indicators show a divergence: Spartak Varna has 41% BTTS while Slavia Sofia has 56%, whereas in the last 5 matches both teams are at 60% BTTS. xG indicates both sides create chances and concede goals — xG_for is 1.49 (Spartak) versus 1.38 (Slavia), and xG_against is 1.68 versus 1.97, suggesting on average each team is expected to concede over 1.6 goals. Shot statistics corroborate this practically: Spartak averages 12.06 shots with 4.18 on target and a conversion rate of 11%, Slavia 10.69 shots with 3.88 on target and 9% conversion, so both have a realistic chance to score at least once. Additionally Spartak have conceded 55 goals this season versus Slavia's 38 and in the last 5 matches they’ve averaged 1.0 (Spartak) and 1.4 (Slavia) goals conceded, which increases the probability of an exchange of goals; therefore I favor BTTS - Yes (64%) over No (36%).
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
I project a total goals tally of about 2.45: Spartak Varna ~1.30 and Slavia Sofia ~1.15. I used several metrics in calculations: home xG 1.49 vs away xG 1.38, shot conversion (home 12.06 shots × 11% ≈ 1.33 goals; away 10.69 × 9% ≈ 0.96) and form from the last 5 matches (recent xG 0.98 for home and 1.41 for away). Historical data support Over 1.5 – seasonOver15 is 82% for the home side and 75% for the away side – therefore I assess the probability of Over 1.5 at about 86%. The 2.5 line is balanced: season Over 2.5 is 47% and 44% (avg ~45%); my model gives 48% for Over 2.5 so it is riskier. Over 3.5 is unlikely given historical 24% and 13%, hence I assign 20% to Over 3.5. The strongest signal is Over 1.5 (line 1.5) due to high Over 0.5 rates (88%/94%) and the projected 2.45 goals.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Spartak Varna led at half-time in 8 home matches (47%) and averages 0.82 goals in the first half, while Slavia have led away in only 4 matches (25%) and average 0.5 goals by half-time; this is a strong signal for the home side to hold a lead at the break. Over full matches Spartak have a 41% home win rate and average 1.53 points per home game versus Slavia’s 25% away win rate and 1.06 points per away game, so the hosts are clearly stronger in full-time results. Additionally, Spartak’s xG is 1.49 compared to Slavia’s 1.38, and Slavia concedes an average of 1.97 xG away versus 1.68 xG conceded by the hosts, suggesting a superiority in goalscoring opportunities for Spartak. It should be noted, however, that Slavia have a very high proportion of goals in the second half away (over 0.5 in 2nd half in 94%), which increases the risk of a comeback and justifies some probability of draws/turnarounds. In summary, the strongest signal is Spartak leading at the break and winning the match (1/1), hence the highest assigned probability to that scenario.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Spartak Varna | Slavia Sofia | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 35% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Slavia Sofia is 39% better for: goals scored per match.
0.85 goals / match - Spartak Varna · 1.18 goals / match - Slavia Sofia
Slavia Sofia is 45% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.67 goals / match - Spartak Varna · 1.15 goals / match - Slavia Sofia
Spartak Varna scores in 67% of matches (22 of 33 matches), while Slavia Sofia keeps a clean sheet in 30% (10 of 33 matches).
Slavia Sofia scores in 70% of matches (23 of 33 matches), while Spartak Varna keeps a clean sheet in 24% (8 of 33 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Spartak Varna
Over / Under - Slavia Sofia
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Slavia Sofia is 39% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.09 pts / match - Spartak Varna · 1.52 pts / match - Slavia Sofia
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Spartak Varna - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 24% of matches and wins 15%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Slavia Sofia - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 36% of matches and wins 33%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 40% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -4 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (9 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (15). Late-goal balance (76-90): -6 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (9 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (11). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Spartak Varna
Slavia Sofia
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (First League).
Teams vs league
| Spartak Varna | Liga | Slavia Sofia | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.52 | 2.31 | • 2.33 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 58% | 43% | ▲ 48% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 48% | 45% | • 45% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 24% | 35% | ▼ 30% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 67% | 63% | ▲ 70% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 82% | 72% | ▲ 82% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Spartak Varna 0 - 1 - 1 Slavia Sofia. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Spartak Varna vs Slavia Sofia?
The First League match finished Spartak Varna 2:1 Slavia Sofia. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Spartak Varna and Slavia Sofia?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Spartak Varna won 0, Slavia Sofia won 1 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Spartak Varna vs Slavia Sofia?
Spartak Varna score 0.85 goals per game on average and Slavia Sofia 1.18. The First League average is 2.31 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 45% of games. Both teams score in 58% of Spartak Varna's matches and 48% of Slavia Sofia's.
What form are Spartak Varna and Slavia Sofia in?
Over the last 5 games Spartak Varna have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Slavia Sofia 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Spartak Varna vs Slavia Sofia?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Spartak Varna vs Slavia Sofia: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.