Sport Recife vs Ponte Preta: match statistics

Sport Recife score an average of 1.69 goals per home game and have not failed to score in any home fixture, while Ponte Preta manage just 0.58 goals away from home. The hosts create significantly more chances, with an average xG of 1.58 compared with the visitors’ 0.96, while shots on target stand at 5.23 to 2.83. Ponte Preta’s defensive record is the main argument in favour of Sport Recife, as the visitors concede an average of 2.58 goals away from home, have kept no clean sheets and have lost 92% of such matches. Recent form also strongly favours the hosts: Ponte Preta have scored just 1 goal and suffered 4 defeats in their last five matches, conceding 13 goals. Sport Recife have endured an inconsistent run of 2 wins and 3 defeats in their last five games, but home advantage and their opponents’ extremely poor away numbers should see them claim victory.

The strongest argument against BTTS - Yes is Ponte Preta’s very weak attack: they have scored just 1 goal in their last 5 matches, averaging 0.2 per game, and failed to score in as many as 67% of their season matches. Their average xG is only 0.96, with 2.83 shots on target per match, which does not provide a solid basis for breaking through against Sport Recife. The hosts concede an average of 1.64 goals, or 1.4 over their last five matches, but Ponte Preta recorded BTTS in only 20% of their games during the same period. Sport Recife should have a good chance of scoring, as Ponte Preta have failed to keep a clean sheet even once and allow an average of 2.58 goals and 2.34 xG, but the scenario of the visitors failing to score remains more likely. Therefore, BTTS - No is the preferred selection.

Sport Recife have averaged 1.6 goals scored over their last 5 matches, while Ponte Preta have conceded as many as 2.6 goals per game during the same period. The hosts create chances worth an average of 1.50 xG, whereas the visitors’ defence allows opponents 2.33 xG, which clearly strengthens the case for at least two goals. Ponte Preta have kept a clean sheet in none of their matches this season and have conceded an average of 2.58 goals, although their own attacking output is poor, with an average of just 0.2 goals in their last five appearances. The Over 1.5 goals line has an edge, as more than 1.5 goals were scored in 79% of Sport Recife’s matches and 92% of Ponte Preta’s games, while the hosts’ attacking potential should largely be enough to cover it.

The strongest HT/FT scenario is Sport Recife leading at the break and winning the match, as the hosts have won 40% of their last five games, while Ponte Preta have failed to win any and have lost 80%. Sport averaged 1.6 goals per game during this period, whereas the visitors conceded as many as 2.6, which clearly strengthens the outlook for a home advantage. Before half-time, Sport were leading in 40% of their last five appearances and averaged 0.8 goals, while Ponte Preta scored just 0.2 goals and were behind at the break in 40% of their matches. The quality of chances also favours the hosts: their average xG stands at 1.35 compared with 0.96 for their opponents, while Ponte Preta allow opponents an xG of 2.34. The alternative is a draw at half-time followed by a Sport Recife win, but the higher number of shots on target by the hosts, 3.57 compared with 2.83, points to them taking control of the match earlier.