St. Louis City II vs North Texas: match statistics

St. Louis City II are unbeaten in their last five matches, collecting 9 points and conceding just 3 goals, while North Texas have conceded as many as 11 goals during the same period. At home, the hosts average 1.92 goals per match with an xG of 1.83, while the visitors allow opponents an xG as high as 2.02 away from home and concede an average of 1.58 goals. St. Louis City II’s advantage is also evident in their chance creation: they average 15.5 shots and 6.25 shots on target per game, compared with North Texas’ 10.83 shots and 3.83 shots on target. The visitors fail to score in 42% of their away matches, whereas the hosts have failed to find the net in just 8% of their home fixtures. A draw remains possible, as St. Louis City II have drawn 3 of their last 5 matches, but the data clearly points towards a home win.

The “Yes” pick is primarily supported by the very high likelihood of St. Louis City II scoring: the team averages 1.91 goals, while North Texas concedes 1.58 goals per match and as many as 2.2 over its last five games. The hosts also create an average of 1.71 xG, while the visitors’ defense allows opponents 2.02 xG, clearly favoring a goal for St. Louis City II. North Texas scores a modest 1.08 goals per match, but its xG has risen to 2.00 over its last five appearances, while St. Louis City II averages 1.75 xG against. The seasonal share of matches in which both teams score stands at 64% for the hosts and 62% across the league, although the visitors’ 42% and the hosts’ just 40% over their last five matches reduce confidence in the prediction. Despite these reservations, North Texas’ poor current defensive form and the attacking numbers of both teams make a scenario with goals at both ends slightly more likely. This supports BTTS - Yes (Goal/Goal), rather than BTTS - No, which means that at least one team fails to score—not automatically a 0:0 draw or a match in which neither team scores.

St. Louis City II score an average of 1.91 goals per game, while North Texas concede 1.58, with the hosts creating an average of 1.71 xG. The visitors’ defense allows as many as 2.02 xG per match, which clearly strengthens the prospects of at least two goals. In their last five matches, North Texas have conceded 11 goals, or 2.2 per game, while the hosts have scored 8 goals over the same period. Over 1.5 goals has landed in 91% of St. Louis City II matches and 67% of North Texas fixtures, making Over 1.5 the strongest pick despite the hosts’ improved recent defensive record, with only 3 goals conceded in five appearances.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a St. Louis City II win after the match, as the hosts were level at the break in 45% of their games and in 60% of their last five. North Texas also often start cautiously, recording a half-time draw in 50% of matches; however, they have not led at the break in any of their last five games and were behind at half-time in 40% of cases. After the interval, St. Louis City II score an average of 1.36 goals and concede just 0.45, while North Texas score only 0.50 and allow opponents 1.25 goals. The hosts also have a clear advantage in chance creation: their average xG is 1.71 compared with 1.30, and they register 5.64 shots on target per match versus 3.83 for their opponents. Current form further supports the hosts, who have not lost any of their last five matches and have conceded an average of 0.6 goals, while the visitors have conceded 2.2 goals per game.